740.0011 European War 1939/7921: Telegram
The Consul at Aden (Timberlake) to the Secretary of State
[Received January 27—5 a.m.]
6. Immediate objectives fighting around Kassala are Asmara and Massama. I have reason to believe that British are preparing early general attack on Abyssinia from three sides, principal thrust from Kassala through Lake Tana region which has never submitted to Italians and diverting attacks from Kenya and from Aden at British Somaliland. I am reliably informed British officers have for some time been active and successful in Abyssinia organizing guerrila warfare, very large amounts of war material, particularly planes, light tanks, and troops have recently passed here destined for Port Sudan from which point railway is now clear to Kassala which is expected to be used as a base of operations.
Preliminary Eritrean campaign launched to prevent possible flank attack on eventual Ethiopian venture should also clear up Red Sea within a month and release many warships on Red Sea convoy.
The Italians are reported to have total armed strength of 250,000, mostly natives, in Abyssinia but plan defense only at two or three strategic positions near Addis Ababa where lines of communication are short. Serious shortage of gasoline, especially aviation, reported in Abyssinia.
On the basis of continuing reports, native uprisings, low morale and general supply shortage, and in view of heavy British preparations, I believe main offensive which will probably start within 6 weeks likely to produce capitulation Italian East Africa early in spring.