Office of the Historian

740.0011 European War 1939/14166: Telegram

The Minister in Egypt (Kirk) to the Secretary of State

Cairo, August 19, 1941—noon.
[Received August 20—1:27 p.m.]

1184. My 968, July 17, 9 a.m. The opinion is being circulated here that owing to the present lack of trained personnel and of mechanized equipment the British will not be in a sufficiently strong position to undertake large scale operations in this area until November. If, therefore, it is in fact necessary to delay action until that time or even [Page 289] until later, the possibility should be envisaged that the strength now calculated for an offensive to the west may not be adequate even for defensive purposes in the face of the situation which may develop.

It is conceivable that Hitler may decide not to pursue the Russian campaign in the face of continued resistance and in that event he could at a given moment cease the offensive in the East. Thereupon after a reasonable time for recuperation and preparation the German command could undertake a movement southwest through Turkey or Iran to synchronize with an attack by the Axis forces on the Canal Zone not only through the western desert but also from the sea.

Speculation may be indulged in indefinitely as to the various contingencies which might alter the manner of the execution of such an undertaking or even eliminate it altogether but as long a[s it 1]ies within the realm of possibility the situation with which the British forces in this area may be confronted as a consequence thereof must be taken into consideration. The fact presents itself therefore that if it is true that it is impossible to build up at once adequate striking power in the Middle East to undertake a successful offensive against the Axis Powers while the Russian campaign is at its height, the measure of preparedness to be effective a few months hence should not be based on the scale of an eventual campaign in the western desert now, but on the necessity of withstanding a possible Axis attack on Egypt on two or three fronts with forces surpassing those previously encountered.

Kirk