740.0011 European War 1939/5455: Telegram
The Minister in Egypt (Fish) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 12—9 a.m.]
198. Department’s telegram 96, August 31. The following is the general military situation in Egypt and the Sudan and the naval situation in the eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea.
1. Egypt: Italian forces in Libya are estimated about 220,000 metropolitan troops and about 80,000 native troops. Only a partial concentration has been effected on the border due to water supply problem. Bulk of concentration believed to be in Jebel-El Akhdar area and between Derna and Tobruk.
British forces in Egypt have been considerably increased of late [apparent omission] transfer of troops particularly Australians from Palestine and recent arrival of reenforcement of about 14,000 men from various parts of the Empire (see the Legation’s telegram 180, August 2312) and a few more convoys are expected in the near future. Furthermore early transfer of about 6,000 Polish troops from Palestine is expected and about 1,000 French volunteers are in training at Ismailia.
Total British troops in Egypt and the Sudan at present estimated at from 85,000 to 95,000 not including Egyptian troops. Although latter number over 30,000 only about 5,000 are trained and equipped for modern warfare. Given present forces available and expected reenforcements the British problem is not so much lack of manpower as inadequacy of equipment including anti-aircraft guns, artillery, tanks and above all airplanes. Most of the planes used are Blenheim bombers and Gladiator and Lysander fighters and there is great need of faster planes. Furthermore, airdromes and such important strategic points as Suez are deficient in anti-aircraft protection. Supplies including some Hurricanes are beginning to come in but it is understood problem remains acute. In this connection an informed source has it that some British bombers are now being flown from England to Egypt and are being used for bombing Italian objectives en route. According to the same source 30 German bombers with German crews recently reached Libya. Operations on the western desert since Italy entered the war have been summarized and analyzed in the Legation’s telegrams No. 154 of July 1912 and No. 168 of August 7.
Despite their inferiority in men and material the British took the initiative at the outset of the war, British mechanized units penetrating over 50 miles into Libya but making no attempt to hold enemy [Page 477] territory and British airplanes raiding Italian bases along the Libyan coast, such raids being supplemented recently by bombardment by British naval units based on Alexandria. However, although air activity has been maintained land operations have been at a virtual standstill for the past month during which time both sides have been strengthening their forces in apparent anticipation of operations on a larger scale. That the offensive in such operations will be taken by the Italians is taken for granted but opinion is divided as to when the attack will come and whether the British defense will be sufficiently strong to withstand it.
About a month ago (see Legation’s telegram 168, August 7) Italian troop concentrations on the Libyan border gave rise to fear of an imminent Italian attack and that possibility is still not to be excluded. However, in the absence of important developments of an unexpected nature the approach of the cool season in October and November is now mentioned as the most likely time for launching an attack possibly in conjunction with a move against the Sudan from Italian East Africa.
As regards the probable outcome of such an offensive the Italians although having great superiority in men and equipment must maintain a long line of communications in order to assure an adequate water supply and also meet the natural obstacles of trans-desert transportation. However, certain observers point out that the Italians have had years to develop means for meeting these obstacles and that wishful thinking in this respect is dangerous.
Many other responsible British military and civil authorities view the situation with obvious seriousness but at the same time with apparent confidence particularly since the arrival of additional troops and supplies.
2. The Sudan: The total Italian forces in East Africa are estimated at about 200,000 men including white and native troops but it is difficult to estimate how many of these could be released to attack the Sudan. Against this the British have a relatively small force of British and Sudanese troops but reenforcements are now being sent and the native population is said to be remaining loyal. Not long after hostilities began the Italians moved to a short distance over the border and seized certain Sudan border towns such as Kassda [Kassala] and Kurmuk but the rainy season halted further operations. However, it is expected attack will be renewed after wet season with Port Sudan as most likely objective and possibly Khartum. In the meantime the British are attempting to promote native uprisings in Abyssinia and for that reason brought Haile Selassie from England.
[Page 478]The basic fact regarding Italian East Africa is its complete isolation and lack of means of obtaining supplies except by occasional airplanes. Under the circumstances it is obvious that the Italians cannot afford to delay for long if they contemplate launching a serious offensive from East Africa.
3. The naval situation: The British Eastern Mediterranean Fleet is based on Alexandria and its composition is as follows: 5 battleships, 8 cruisers, 2 airplane carriers, 22 destroyers, 2 tenders and 32 submarines. Of these 1 battleship, 3 cruisers, 1 aircraft carrier and 6 destroyers were sent from England as reenforcements only last week and 2 more cruisers and possibly more destroyers are on the way with a convoy around the Cape. Generally speaking the new units are better fitted for anti-aircraft defense than those originally here. It is also expected that about one-third of the destroyers being acquired from the United States will be used in the Eastern Mediterranean or Red Sea area.
As matters now stand the British naval command in this area is said to feel sufficiently strong to defeat any Italian force sent against it in the open sea but not sufficiently strong to attack the Italian Fleet at their bases nor to stop Italian convoys from Italy to Libya which are said to be crossing without great difficulty. For a serious attack on the fleet and bases greater air strength would be needed and to stop convoys more destroyers would be required. Under the circumstances continuation of its raids against Italian bases such as those recently conducted is to be anticipated but no decisive action. Italian submarine losses in the Mediterranean are said to have been heavy.
As regards shipments to Egypt there is practically nothing coming by way of the Mediterranean but the convoy system in the Red Sea appears to be working efficiently although incoming cargo thus far has been almost exclusively military. However knowledge of resumption of commercial shipping in the Red Sea including direct sailings between Suez and New York by foreign registry ships is expected in the near future.
The Consulates at Alexandria and Port Said are under standing instructions to report any events of military interest in their districts not covered in official communiqués but thus far they have had little to report. Alexandria has been the objective of repeated air raids but attacks have been light and no important objectives have been hit and heavy damage done. Port Said and Suez were attacked for the first time last week but no damage was done although bombs dropped at latter which barely missed oil tanks.