793.94/12583: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received March 5—8:40 a.m.]
143. Following for War Department from Colonel Stilwell:
“Estimate of general situation as of March 1st. Factors favorable to Chinese: General determination to resist to bitter end, educated and moneyed classes gradually taking part, more students in ranks, enormous man power, military training of reserves going on everywhere, more favorable outlook for munitions supply, good financial position according to foreign financial advisers, losses in men fully replaced, gradual improvement in the command, experience in fighting being acquired, increased foreign support in aviation, communication by motor roads being greatly improved (road open to Sinkiang, work started on outlet to Burmah, outlet to Indo-China nearly ready), another instance of Japanese air threat rapidly decreasing, more spirit visible in the ranks and among wounded, many new divisions nearly ready, loyal cooperation by the Reds, good example of execution of Han Fu Chu,81 no apparent depression due to loss of men and territory, guerrilla war in Shansi growing serious, Japanese let down since capture of Nanking, Japanese failure to press to an objective, Japanese failure to get Chinese help politically, time working for Chinese and against Japanese, China’s basic industry, agriculture, cannot be destroyed, moral backing of the democratic states, no serious dissension in China’s Government.
Factors unfavorable to Chinese: no sign as yet of the offensive spirit, continued dependence on passive defense, continued excuses about [Page 116] insufficient artillery and aviation, retention of many incompetent commanders, many desertions, many self-inflicted wounds, danger of spread of guerrilla idea to regular units (they will withdraw as soon as the pressure hurts), loss of revenue.
Conclusion: Since Japan cannot pull out and China refuses to quit, the prospect of a long drawn out struggle increases. It is possible for China to win. Japan, to get a decision, must make a greatly increased effort. I still believe she must occupy all China east of the 110th meridian, and that even that may not be enough.”
Repeated to Peiping.
- Chairman of the Shantung Provincial Government.↩