760F.62/571: Telegram
The Chargé in the United Kingdom (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received August 16—6 p.m.]
779. I had a talk this afternoon with Masaryk. He thinks any sudden move by Hitler within the next month is improbable and that the time of greatest danger will be September 15 when the annual Nazi Congress meets at Nuremburg. By that time the German maneuvers and test mobilization will be in full swing and public opinion in Germany aroused to a high degree of excitement. It can only be expected that Hitler will want to produce something dramatic before the Nazi Congress and this, in Masaryk’s view, will be at least a very dangerous speech. Masaryk is, however, as unwilling as others to draw any fast conclusions from what is now taking place or to indulge in any prophecies. He repeated with great emphasis, however, what has been said before: that there is no question whatever but that if Germany attacks Czechoslovakia, the Czechs will fight as long as they possibly can. Opinions vary as to how long this resistance could be kept up. The most optimistic view is 6 months, which Masaryk thinks is absurd. But he thinks they could make a very good showing for a month. The Soviet Ambassador, who recently returned from a protracted visit to Moscow, has told Masaryk that speaking with the full authority of Stalin he had no hesitation in saying that if Czechoslovakia is attacked Russia will fulfill her treaty obligations to the letter the minute that France moves.
Masaryk is sure, he says, that Hitler will endeavor to attain his ends without war and that he personally does not desire war in spite of his hatred of Czechoslovakia and the pressure of his more violent advisers; certainly, in Masaryk’s opinion, if Hitler were convinced that a world war would result from a German attack on Czechoslovakia, it would not take place. Masaryk therefore naturally attaches the greatest importance to any support, moral or otherwise, which Czechoslovakia can receive from the outside world.
His attitude towards the Government here seemed to me to indicate some degree of bitterness. He feels that, with a view to laying the ground for an understanding between the four great European powers and keeping Great Britain out of a war, the Government would be willing to sacrifice Czechoslovakia. Speaking naturally as a protagonist of his own country, he said he did not believe the British realized fully the supreme importance of the existence of Czechoslovakia as an independent state. If Czechoslovakia falls, he said, nothing will keep Germany from the Black Sea. He has urged on the [Page 547] Government here time and time again the advantages which would accrue from economic aid to Yugoslavia and Rumania which would be welcomed by the governments of those countries now on the way to economic dependence on Germany. He thought he had made some impression on Lord Halifax in this connection. His idea is that economic strengthening from Great Britain of Rumania and Yugoslavia by increased British purchases in those countries would in the long run be of even more assistance to Czechoslovakia than similar direct assistance. Exports from Czechoslovakia to Germany have been gradually reduced in order to lessen Czechoslovakia’s economic dependence on Germany to a point where Czechoslovak exports to Germany including Austria, represent only 19% of their total exports. They were formerly 40% to Germany alone. Any corresponding weakening of the economic ties of the Danubian countries on Germany would therefore contribute to strengthening the position of Czechoslovakia and blocking Germany’s expansion to the east. Hungary, of course, occupies a strategic position in the Danubian area of vital political and economic significance to Czechoslovakia and Masaryk attaches the utmost importance to the results in the forthcoming visit to Germany of Admiral Horthy.88 Concluding his remarks Masaryk said that his country would always be grateful to the United States for the generous attitude they took in negotiating the trade agreement which had been of invaluable assistance to his country.
- Nicolas Horthy, Regent of Hungary.↩