793.94/8910
The Military Attaché in Japan (Crane) to the Adjutcmt General, War Department (Conley)69
By way of Tientsin today I received your No. 405. Information as follows was given to the Assistant Military Attaché on July 21 by a reliable officer of the Japanese General Staff.
Japanese troops gone to North China are the following only:70 Of the 20th Division about two-thirds at war strength; from the Jehol garrison approximately one regiment of infantry and one battalion of field artillery; and from Japan proper about two tank companies of the 2nd Regiment and about 400 trucks with three transport battalions. There were sent composite units comprising two squadron types 95th pursuit and two squadrons types 94th observation by both the 4th and 5th air regiments.
“Mobilization preparation” orders have been issued to divisions west of Kyoto only. Replacements for aviation and transport personnel dispatched to North China account for movements of reservists reported. Mobilization has taken place in the 20th Division only.
North China is comparable to a game of poker in that war is expected by neither China nor Japan. There is anticipation of a local settlement, [Page 246] although, to insure execution of the agreement of the 11th of July by the 29th Army, Japan is ready to use all the military force that is necessary. The statement just given has been in general confirmed, but there is no confirmation of the reports in radiograms of the American Embassy of other mobilization preparations and movements of troops.
The following is my estimate of the situation: There is danger in the situation in North China chiefly because the 37th Division of the Chinese 29th Army lacks control and because both Japan and China feel it necessary to save “face”. Information regarding the disposition and movement of Chinese troops conveyed by the Japanese War Office gives less the impression of serious war preparations than of a demonstration. Anticipation of war is not indicated because of Japanese restraints and limited mobilization and movement of troops. As to local settlement of the incidents there is some progress reported. In order to secure Chinese fulfillment of the July 11th agreement entered into by the 29th Army, the Government and army as well as the people are prepared to exert all the military force that is necessary. Agreement of July 11 is published without economic or political provisions. The possibility of a local settlement is held by those foreign observers and Japanese Army officers best informed. For the reasons hereinbefore stated, I concur that a local settlement is possible and hold the belief that there will be no war between Japan and China, although there may be some incidental fighting connected with movement of the 37th Division of the 29th Army.