740.00/214
The Minister in Czechoslovakia (Carr) to the Secretary of State
[Received October 15.]
Sir: Referring to my despatch No. 1 of September 16, 1937,50 I have the honor to report that after presentation of my letters of credence, President Beneš said that I had doubtless heard in America and elsewhere much talk and noted much apprehension about the likelihood of war in Europe and, especially, war that would involve Czechoslovakia. He wished me to know that he did not believe a war would occur and he proceeded to give me the reasons for his belief. In his opinion no nation in Europe wants war at the present time. Italy could not carry on a war after her Ethiopian experience. Germany is not ready for war. Both will talk of war and Germany, especially, will do so, but it will be but a pretext to frighten the other Powers into giving up something which Germany wants, be it colonies or something else. There will be no war over Spain, but Germany and Italy will use Spain to frighten other governments into making concessions which Germany and Italy desire.
The likelihood of war now, in President Beneš’ opinion, is much less than it was in 1936. That was the nearest approach to war that Europe has reached. He gave as reasons for this opinion that in 1931 and 1932 the Manchukuo question arose;51 in 1934 there was the assassination of Barthou and King Alexander,52 and the Dollfuss53 murder and the rush of Italian troops to frontiers. In 1935 there was the [Page 130] Italo-Ethiopian conflict and the abandonment of sanctions.54 In 1936 Hitler tore up the Locarno Pact and sent German troops into the demilitarized portions of the Rhineland.55 France was obligated to send troops against Germany and Great Britain to support her, but France did not move. All these things occurred but did not bring on war. That proved, in his opinion, that the Nations do not want war. Germany and Italy “have broken all the treaties and there are no more to break”. Therefore, there is no reason for expecting war as a result of broken treaties.
Furthermore, President Beneš said Germany will not march over the Czechoslovak boundaries because it would be too expensive. The Czechs have an excellent army and would fight to the last man. Then, he said, France would come to the aid of Czechoslovakia. He said he was certain of this and that Germany knows that France will march in the event that Czechoslovakia is attacked, because François-Poncet has told Hitler so.
Another reason why he thought war less likely now than in 1936 was because Great Britain was then insufficiently armed to take a strong position. That situation now has materially changed. Great Britain is arming rapidly. Then France under Blum made great improvement. There will be no revolution in France as some people have expected.
I inquired how he viewed the Little Entente at the present time. He said that when the League of Nations weakened, when France and Great Britain failed to take a strong stand in the Mediterranean, when sanctions went by the board, the smaller Powers were uncertain where their best interests lay. Yugoslavia began to look to Italy, “Rumania hesitated”, but Czechoslovakia stood fast. Now that Great Britain is arming, France has not succumbed to revolution and the two countries are standing more closely together, the Little Entente countries are “coming back”.
I then said that I would be interested in his opinion of the recent happenings in Russia and in their effect upon Stalin’s strength. He replied that he did not think that Stalin had been weakened. On the contrary he thought the purging that had taken place had strengthened Stalin. There were two groups in Russia, both with the same ultimate objects but with different methods. There were the doctrinaires such as Tukhachevsky, Zinoviev and Bukharin who believed in world revolution through the Comintern and in close relations with Germany which would give Germany a free hand while Russia would not take up arms. The other group composed of Stalin, Litvinov and others, realized that world revolution is not practicable. He said he [Page 131] knew positively that Tukhachevsky had been in touch with Germany. He also knew that there was in Berlin last summer a draft of an agreement between Russia and Germany ready for signature. The testimony of the accused in Russia was not fully reported. President Beneš said he knew, however, that the accused all testified that they had been in touch with Germany.
He went on to say that Russia is in a state of revolution. Those who will not bring themselves into harmony with the policy of those in authority have to be eliminated. That was the course followed in the French Revolution. It has been so in Russia. Whether Russia will be permanently strengthened as a result of the recent executions remains to be seen. He thinks it will be strengthened. He said in a democracy suppression of opposition to a given policy takes place through the process of the ballot; in a dictatorship it has to be accomplished by other means. Italy, Germany and Russia are all in a state of revolution. Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini are working for what, in the long run, will be democracy. Lacking what Czechoslovakia has—sufficient men imbued with democratic ideas and a population capable of carrying on the processes of democratic Government—they can achieve democracy only through dictatorships. Their people will not be ready to carry on democratic government for at least a generation.
If the doctrinaires had succeeded in Russia, it would have meant a military dictatorship and the restoration of many of the evils of the Czarist régime. It would have meant an understanding with Germany as a result of which the Russians would have remained inactive and Germany would have been given a free hand.
President Beneš stressed the necessity of the governments of Europe and, especially, of Czechoslovakia, exercising self-control and avoiding provocative incidents, but he said he felt strongly that if peace could be maintained for another year, the tension would be materially relieved and the possibilities of armed conflict greatly lessened.
While no attempt has been made to use President Beneš’ own phraseology, I think the foregoing reflects accurately the substance of what he said to me.
Respectfully yours,
- Not printed.↩
- See Foreign Relations, 1931, vol. iii, pp. 1 ff.; ibid., 1932, vols. iii and iv.↩
- Louis Barthou, French Foreign Minister, and King Alexander of Yugoslavia were assassinated at Marseilles, October 9, 1934.↩
- Engelbert Dollfuss, Austrian Chancellor, assassinated July 25, 1934.↩
- See Foreign Relations, 1935, vol. i, pp. 594 ff.↩
- March 7; see ibid., 1936, vol. i, pp. 180–206.↩