893.00/13236: Telegram
The Counselor of Embassy in China (Peck) to the Secretary of State
[Received 5:42 p.m.]
35. 1. The Ambassador is now in Shanghai and what follows is my personal estimate of the political situation. Chiang Kai-shek arrived in Nanking October 14 and it is reported that he will leave today or tomorrow. On October 17 T. V. Soong and Huang Fu arrived. It is reported that Yen Hsi-shan may come also. Practically all of the leading politicians and members of the Central Executive Committee are here both because of the presence of Chiang Kai-shek and the coming plenary session of the Central Executive Committee on November 1.
2. The problems being dealt with by General Chiang are mainly:
- (a)
- The rumored new Japanese policy providing for the demilitarization of the “five provinces” north of the Yellow River and west as far as Shensi and Suiyuan in order that this area may be prepared for Sino-Japanese political and economic cooperation. It would seem that the general orientation of the attitude of the Chinese Government toward Japan is subordinate to this pressing question. There is an unusual concentration of troops and anti-aircraft equipment at Nanking at present and this appears to have caused popular rumors of an imminent clash between Japan and China. However, I assumed from Chinese sources that no such clash is anticipated. This concentration may be purely accidental in the course of routine movements of troops and the despatch of troops over the Tientsin-Pukow and Lunghai Railways to the northwest whither it is reported over 200,000 troops have been sent and more are proceeding nominally for the prosecution of the anti-communist campaign. It is said that the Japanese have presented [Page 368] two apparently conflicting demands to Chiang, that is, that he remove troops which appear to threaten their sphere of interest in North China and that he prevent the communist threat to that area. The widely reported conference of Japanese military authorities at Dairen on October 13 and the forthcoming conference of Japanese military and naval and Foreign Office officials at Shanghai on October 20 seem to support the Chinese belief that Japan intends to force China to come to some sort of a definite stand in Sino-Japanese matters. Reports from both Japanese and Chinese sources are that these conferences are intended merely to unify Japanese activities in China.
- (b)
- There is a revival of the proposal to end the period of tutelage and set up a constitutional government. It is doubtful whether General Chiang believes the present moment suitable for him to emerge as a constitutional President of the Republic. In any event if the Kwangtung coalition succeeds in preventing the Nationalist Party Congress scheduled for November 12, this project must be shelved.
- (c)
- The dispute with Canton involves relations with Japan as well as the continuation of the Canton branch political councils and military affairs committee. It is reported that Canton yielded to Japan in the Swatow tax controversy because Chiang consented to augment his subsidy to Canton in partial restitution of the annual income from provincial rice tax thus lost.
3. This estimate will be supplemented as additional information is obtained.
Copy by mail to Peiping and the Ambassador at Shanghai.