893.01 Manchuria/999
The Ambassador in Germany (Dodd) to the Secretary of State
[Received February 9.]
Sir: I have the honor to report that in a recent number of the London Times, reference was made to an address in Paris by Mr. Wellington Koo,31 [Page 23] in which he intimated that Germany might be considering the recognition of Manchukuo.
In the course of a visit on another matter to Mr. Meyer, the head of the Eastern Division of the German Foreign Office, his attention was called to this statement, and inquiry made as to whether it contained any truth. Mr. Meyer replied that he had received many telegrams from the Far East on this same point. He considered that the story originated in a trip made by a Third Secretary of the German Embassy in Tokyo through Manchukuo mainly for the purpose of commercial reporting. He denied that there was any present intention of recognizing the regime now in power there. In this connection he suggested that if Pu Yi played his cards properly there might eventually be a considerable likelihood of his annexing a large portion of Northern China.
As to the danger of warfare in the Far East, he did not consider that the retirement of General Araki was of any special importance as Count [General] Hayashi shares his views exactly though he would perhaps be more discreet in expressing them. He considered that should the Japanese endeavor to seize Vladivostok the chances would be “fifty-fifty” as to their success. He thought that the Russian airforce would be a match for the Japanese and that Vladivostok was an extremely difficult place to seize. He seemed to be of the opinion that if the Japanese were to effect anything worth while in a military way, they would have to advance almost to Lake Baikal, and that in that region the winter would work much to their detriment.
Respectfully yours,
- Chinese Minister in France.↩