837.00/3579½
The Ambassador in Cuba (Welles) to President Roosevelt27a
[Receipt date not indicated.]
My Dear Mr. President: Your letter of June 24th27b made me very happy. I appreciate deeply what you were good enough to write. I am more than satisfied if what I have been attempting to accomplish here in Cuba merits your approval.
The situation in general is distinctly encouraging, far more so than I had hoped six weeks ago. President Machado and the three organized political parties of the Republic have formally accepted my tender of good offices, and every important faction in the opposition has taken the same action with the exception of the small and constantly diminishing group which surrounds General Menocal. I am unable to attach very much importance to the student groups. While they have not expressed their approval of what we are trying to do, they at least have declared that they will suspend all terroristic activities. It is now twelve days since we commenced negotiations and I am happy to say that the various delegates are concentrating upon questions of principle, upon the need for changing the system rather than the individuals, and have modified very distinctly the uncompromising and unreasoning attitude which many at first maintained.
I think there is now a good chance that through a reform of the Constitution and through the utilization of the new electoral code which Professor McBain is helping to draft, we can work out a fair [Page 324] and just solution of the political problem strictly within the lines of constitutional procedure. In this connection, I feel that I must have specific and personal instructions from you. At some time within the next two or three weeks, the suggestion will be made that after a Vice President satisfactory to all parties has been selected and has taken office, the President resign and make it thus possible for the Vice President to remain in entire control of the Government until a new Constitutional Government has been elected in November 1934. This means that President Machado will have to permit the Vice President to take control about May 1934. The term which he now is filling would normally expire in May of 1935. The reason for this suggestion, which to my mind must necessarily be acceded to by President Machado, is that no opposition party will go to the national elections in November 1934 if President Machado remains in control of the Government. They are confident that fair elections cannot be held so long as he remains in the Presidency. As I have reported several times to the Department, I have every reason to believe that President Machado will agree to take this action should he be permitted to take it of his own initiative and should it not be forced upon him as a condition by the opposition. The solution in my mind, furthermore, is fair to all concerned, inasmuch as the President’s own party will have just as many guaranties in the person of the Vice President, in the new constitutional reforms, and in the new electoral code as the opposition parties will have. It is perfectly possible, in fact, as I now sum up the situation, that the candidate of the President’s, the Liberal, party will be elected in 1934. Consequently, the only sacrifice that the President will have to make will be to shorten his term by one year, and you will recall that the last constitutional reform which made the President’s re-election possible was accomplished in such a manner as to leave very grave doubt as to its legality and as to its conformity with the articles of the preceding Constitution.
In the same last constitutional reform—that of 1928—the Senators and Congressmen extended their own terms of office. No more striking blow at the principle of representative government can be conceived. These extended terms must, of course, all be cut in the new reform so that the entire Senate and House will be renewed in the general elections of 1934.
Moreover, if the opposition parties do not go to the elections of 1934, whoever is elected in those elections will have bitter opposition to him throughout the term for which he is elected, and, in all likelihood, we will again be confronted with a situation in Cuba identical with that through which we have just been passing.
[Page 325]I consider the plan suggested both reasonable and eminently fair to all concerned, and I wish to urge it upon President Machado as a patriotic solution of Cuba’s problem when the time comes. I wish, however, to have your specific authorization to do this and I wish, further, to be authorized to tell him that such oral representations as I make to him in this sense are being made with your full knowledge and approval.
The ground is very well cleared now for me to commence immediately the negotiations for the revision of the commercial treaty. Cuban public opinion is, in general, thoroughly well satisfied with the treatment accorded Cuba in Washington in the Sugar Conferences. If, when consumption of sugar in the United States once more returns to normal, Cuba is permitted to export into the United States 2,000,000 tons of sugar at a stabilized price, and with the added preferential advantage which I hope we will be authorized to give Cuba in the new commercial treaty, she will definitely be set upon her feet again, because her exports of sugar to the world market and local consumption of sugar total another million tons, and with a production of 3,000,000 tons of sugar annually, there is no reason why social conditions in Cuba should not improve materially, providing the next Government undertakes the passage of much needed social and economic legislation. We will likewise regain an exceedingly important market for our exports.
I am, of course, keeping the negotiation of the commercial treaty as a leverage until I know definitely where I stand on the political solution.
I cabled Bill Phillips the other day that I hoped very much that I could consider my portion of the Cuban task accomplished by the end of September and then return to the Department. I am particularly anxious to take up the preliminary work for the inter-American Conference at Montevideo in December, which, in my judgment, if properly handled, can result in the greatest benefit to the United States.
The overwhelming success of the Administration during these four months has given me greater satisfaction than I can express.
Faithfully yours,