[Enclosure—Extracts]
Memorandum by the Military Attaché in Japan
(McIlroy), August 25, 1932
1. General Impressions.
Although detailed information is lacking, most observers here are of
the belief that there has been a pronounced increase in the
production of munitions, and that this production is continuing.
Some declare that Japan is merely replacing the equipment used up in
Manchuria and Shanghai, but this office believes that those
expeditions made a very small dent in the already large number of
war reserves, and that the present increase is for some eventuality
in the near future. Just what this will be, cannot be said. Perhaps
Japan is preparing herself for possible friction with the League,
but more likely with Soviet Russia. Such widespread activity does
not indicate the mere pacification of Manchuria, nor a possible
clash with China alone. It seems to point to preparations for
operations of even greater importance.
2. Japanese Worried over
Possibilities.
The Japanese Army has always been very secretive about its
organization and plans, and is even more so at present, which makes
it difficult to obtain information as to the aim and extent of its
present activities. Leading Japanese businessmen and bankers have no
knowledge of what is going on or what is in the offing, but tactful
inquiries by Americans, leads to the belief that the Japanese are
very much worried over the present situation and the immediate
future.
[Here follow paragraphs reporting on importation of war material;
arsenals; machinery and machine tools; electric, bridge, and
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building equipment; air;
other donations; motorcars; tanks and armored motorcars; chemicals;
gas masks; naval preparations; additional funds for munitions; army
activity; and foreign purchases for military purposes.
A footnote to the paragraph on importation of war material reads as
follows: “Since the above was written, the Military Attaché’s Office
has learned from a most reliable source that the Japanese have
purchased during the past four or five months four or five times as
much aluminum as in normal times. The person from whom the
information was obtained stated that he believed that this aluminum
was largely going into aircraft and into war vessels.”]
16. Need of
Reorganization.
The preparations listed above indicate something, but just what is on
the tapis cannot be said. It is a known fact that for a long time
Japan’s army has been sadly lacking in auxiliary and mechanical
equipment, and even before the blow-up in Manchuria, they had
planned a complete reorganization of the army, which was delayed by
lack of funds. However, those plans were announced last fall, and
they are making efforts to carry them out. The recent activities are
a little too feverish for mere reorganization plans, unless they
have some other definite purpose in mind for the future. It is more
than likely that it is reorganization of the army so that within a
few months it will be in a position to handle any situation which
may arise.
17. Railroad
Construction.
- a.
- If Japan is actually considering a war with Soviet Russia, the
completion of the Kirin-Tunhua Railway is of the utmost
importance. They are believed to be constructing that road at
present. An American reports that his company delivered
tunnelling tools at Seishin, Korea, in May for use on that road
and he is now working on an order for similar tools for the
Mukden-Hailung-Kirin line, placed through the S. M. R. He
believes that these tools are to be used in constructing the
Kirin-Wuchang-Harbin-Hailun line, neutralizing the
Changchun-Harbin line of the C. E. R.
- b.
- The press reports that permission has been granted a private
company under the S. M. R. to construct the proposed
Yuki-Rashin-Seishin-Ranan line in northeastern Korea. It is to
be of standard gauge and work on it is to start in the near
future.
18. Psychological Aspect.
There is also the psychological aspect to the situation. The military
are in power, and the people have been aroused to almost a warlike
pitch over Manchuria and Shanghai. Naturally, the army wishes to
take advantage of this to bring about the reorganization, and to
procure
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certain needed
equipment. Consequently, they are making as many preparations as
they can, and spreading more and more propaganda without disclosing
their real intentions. The press too, is very quiet on the subject,
and one sees practically nothing in it concerning these
preparations. The fact is though, that when the military spirit is
roused to a certain pitch, it must be utilized or it will react and
destroy those who fomented it. Therefore, the military will have to
undertake a war of some sort or else lose the power and prestige
they have seized, and no one believes they will relinquish this
without a struggle.
19. Soviet Russia. Not the U. S.
the Probable Foe.
There is much propaganda being spread against the United States, and
twice Shiratori of
the Foreign Office has tried to make capital out of certain
statements of Mr. Stimson’s, either for himself or for the army. In
the rural districts, anti-American feeling is probably higher, but
it is not believed that Japan is ready to engage us in a war. That
leaves only Soviet Russia as their prospective foe, or else they
plan to over run China. If it is Russia, they will certainly be
attacked by China in the rear. Everyone agrees that something on a
large scale is imminent, and everyone is waiting for it to break, or
else Japan is placing herself in a position to defy the rest of the
world, carry out her plans of expansion on the mainland, well
prepared to fight anyone who stands in her way.
20. Preparations in
Russia.
Reports from an engineer who has recently returned from Russia state
that the Soviets believe that they are the target for all these
preparations, and that they too, are preparing with all their might
for a war with Japan.
Note: All this may seem a little sensational, but it is cold fact
nevertheless. They do not appear in the press, but are common
knowledge among all the foreign businessmen. The foreign newspaper
correspondents are afraid to cable the story home as they are unable
to guess Japan’s real intention, and fear that they will be denied
certain privileges, as well as compromising their sources of
information.
