891.00/1171: Telegram

The Minister in Persia (Caldwell) to the Acting Secretary of State

3. Situation in the Middle East undoubtedly approaching grave turning point. With the withdrawal of the British forces from north Persia, Anglo-Persian agreement1 becomes impossible of execution and the British Legation here admits that it means sacrifice of British interests throughout Persia except extreme south. British Minister states that even if Medjlis were to meet at once and ratify the agreement it would be too late as his Government had apparently decided not to assume any responsibility which might involve it in protecting Persia against possible Bolshevik invasion.

In view of the fact that the American people seem to take lively interest in the possibilities of certain natural resources of Persia I venture to suggest that the present moment furnishes unparalleled opportunity to establish this interest in practical form.

Immediate and most pressing need of the Persian Government is a number of military officers to take the place of the Russians recently dismissed. They are determined not to employ British and the latter claim even were they now asked they would not accept. If the Persian Government could at once contract privately for the services of at least 30 experienced American officers to reorganize and command the Persian forces it may yet be possible to prevent disturbances locally and above all to prevent Persia from being driven into the arms of Soviet Russia. They should arrive here not later than April, that is to say just before British complete their evacuation. Moral effect of announcing such a step, which need not of course involve the American Government, would be enormous as Persians of all classes still have unbounded confidence in America and would probably rally to the support of American officers with sufficient enthusiasm to bring new life into the body politic and act as deterrent to any designs the Bolsheviki may have. And with the ever-present danger of Bolshevism the world can hardly afford [Page 634] to allow such moral values to remain unused. Furthermore, as the Persian Government is about to conclude a convention with Soviet Russia the presence of Americans would be that [the] test of the latter’s sincerity as regards promise of nonintervention provided the British leave the country. The Persian Government would of course also ask for American financial and other technical experts but the most urgent demand is giving [getting?] military officers to maintain discipline during the critical stage of transition.

Unless some such measures be adopted it is difficult to see how utter collapse of the Government can be avoided. The decisions of the next few weeks will determine the fate of this part of the world for a generation and if we intend to participate in its economic development no more favorable moment will ever present itself to lay the foundation.

As it is probable that the Persian Government will approach the Legation on the subject the Department’s views would be greatly appreciated. It is also respectfully suggested that in the meantime the British Government be sounded as to its attitude in the event of Persian request for American advisers. The Legation understands from the British Minister that there might be no objection as Great Britain had virtually decided to abandon Persia to her fate.

Caldwell