Paris Peace Conf. 184.01102/266
Professor Philip M. Brown to Professor A. C. Coolidge5
No. 1
Budapest, 26 March, 1919.
Subject: Political situation.
Sir: The political situation at this moment may be summarized as follows.
[Page 420]- 1.
- The new regime styles itself as “The Hungarian Council-Republic” which means of course Soviet Republic along the model of the Russian government.
- 2.
- The responsible governing body of this Republic is the “Revolutionary Government Council” which is composed of an indefinite number of officials called either “People’s Commissioners” or “People’s Representatives”. At present the number is about fifteen. This Council has all powers and assumes all responsibility. It is now occupied principally with the drafting of Socialistic legislation covering every field of social interest.
- 3.
- The new regime has not declared war on any single nation or group of nations. In fact it claims to be international in character. It has made an appeal to the proletariat of the world, and an especial appeal to the proletariat of Roumania, Tchecko-Slovakia, and Serbia not to lend themselves to nationalistic aims at aggrandizement, etc., etc. It has made a particular appeal to the Russian Soviet Government in the nature of what they choose to call a “brotherly greeting” and call for help. I think that the extreme communistic members of this regime have had hopes of the active support of the Russian Bolshevist army, but now are discouraged because they believe the Russians are too far away to be of much assistance.
- 4.
- While the radical socialists are certainly in the ascendancy at this moment, I do not believe that the mass of the people are either extreme or even socialistic. They are intensely nationalistic and have accepted socialism as the only alternative to what they consider the complete dismemberment of Hungary. Nationalism and Socialism have formed an unnatural partnership under the pressure of events. They are making use of each other, though the Socialists quite realize the utter inconsistency of their position. They of course will utilize any means to accomplish their end, namely the reign of socialism throughout the world without regard for nationalistic aims.
- 5.
- As to the attitude of the new regime towards the Entente, I do not think it has had time to formulate definitely its policy. Certainly they have not declared war, and they are most conciliatory. In fact I believe they are willing to go a long way in acquiescing in necessary rectifications of the frontiers of Hungary. A high functionary of the Government intimated as much to me this morning. Colonel Vix has just told me that he has been unofficially informed that the Government would accept the new line of demarcation whose notification precipitated the downfall of the Carolyi Government. Vix stated that they would confirm this in writing but he had not received any statement up to the time indicated for his departure.
- 6.
- As to the attitude of the Entente towards this new regime, I venture to state that I believe it possible to prevent Hungary from becoming completely Bolshevist by prudent action. A firm but liberal attitude could accomplish much. A clear assurance that the Entente has no intention of mutilating Hungary or of breaking it up without due regard for the wishes of all the peoples concerned and for the principle of autonomy would go far towards tranquilizing these people. It would moreover, hold back the Hungarians from becoming completely Bolshevist. I am confident that the new regime would consent to a considerable rectification of the frontiers on the side of Transylvania and Slovakia if the wishes of the peoples concerned were consulted. It is important that the people of Hungary should now receive some assurance that they will be consulted before any final decision is taken concerning the rearrangement of their boundaries. Rightly or wrongly, they felt driven in desperation to accept this new regime. The new regime may succeed in getting complete control of the Hungarians and in turning them over to Bolshevism unless the Entente takes immediate action. This action may either be conciliatory or by active military intervention. I do not attempt to say which, though I cannot avoid the conclusion that a policy of conciliation might yet prevent the situation from getting much worse. Military intervention by British and American troops combined with conciliatory assurances might be the wisest course to pursue. I am certain it would be folly to send French, Roumanian, or Tcheco-Slovaques. I doubt the wisdom of sending Italian troops. Serbian troops would be preferable to the latter, according to reliable information. British troops or American troops however would probably be welcomed.
- 7.
- As to the trend of events here, while there has been no shooting as yet and no general disorder, the situation is distinctly disquieting. For the moment the moderate radicals have been able to restrain the extreme communists. The latter are bound however to secure the ascendancy if they have time enough to work out their plans. The “Red Guard” is very much in evidence and beginning to feel its power. Many Russian Bolshevists among the prisoners are coming into town and are being enrolled in the Red Guard. Counsels are necessarily divided and there is no one person to whom one can turn with confidence to keep a firm hand on the situation. I do not question the good intentions of the present powers that be. I merely record the fact that events are taking place they cannot control, and that the extremists may some day be the masters.
Sincerely yours,
Philip Brown
- Presumably transmitted to the Commission by Professor Coolidge under covering letter not found in the Department files.↩