File No. 763.72/1526

The Ambassador in Germany ( Gerard ) to the Secretary of State


1694. Italian situation considered dangerous here but my information is Italy will remain neutral as well as Roumania. Bulgaria likely to join Germany soon. Much talk here with no discoverable foundation of Japan’s making separate peace and attacking America; in this connection see my cables of a year ago reporting conversations with Emperor. Had a conversation with Zimmermann yesterday giving him letter from House and am convinced only way of opening negotiations is method indicated my previous cables which I did not send without having good reason. Germans are winning and insist on controlling negotiations from here; Allies must first propose. Of course I know you do not believe in preparing for possible eventualities but the other day the Chief of the General Staff here referring to American-German relations said it was hard to stop a victorious army and I was told by the Foreign Office that if it were not for the war the European powers would never permit present Mexican conditions to continue.