763.72119/588a
The Secretary of State to President Wilson
My Dear Mr. President: I think that we should anticipate two moves on the part of Germany and be prepared to deal with them promptly and decisively.
From our various sources of information, which are of course more or less uncertain, it appears that Germany may in the near future directly or indirectly through Austria outline terms of peace, which the German Government practically declined to do. I do not believe that the terms will be such that they can be considered nor do I think that they will be bona fide. They will be made to influence public opinion in this country and Russia.
[Page 13]The other move on the part of the German Government will be to indicate the success of democracy in Germany either by concessions by the Government or by an apparent revolution carefully staged. This step will also be taken to influence public opinion here and in Russia. It will of course be artificial and manufactured for the occasion. I am convinced that the sentiment for democracy in Germany is entirely under the control of the Government, which will take every means to give it the appearance of genuineness and the movement an appearance of irresistible popular pressure.
I am writing of these possible, and I believe probable, steps by Germany because it seems to be advisable to consider in advance the policy to be adopted in meeting them. Would it be well to let the impression get abroad through the press that Germany may possibly make such moves, but that the American people ought not to be deceived as to their purpose, which is of course to cause reaction against a vigorous war policy and arouse false hopes of an early peace?
Faithfully yours,