763.72/3350½
The Ambassador in Italy (Page) to the Secretary of State
[Received March 15.]
My Dear Mr. Secretary: I wrote two days ago and sent by private hand to Paris to Judge Gerard a long confidential letter to the President about the situation here. I have, however, just had a conversation with Baron Sonnino, which I think well worth reporting . . .
Sonnino seems very firm in his conviction that the requisitioning of the German interned ships would have an enormous effect in Germany in discouraging the Germans in the prosecution of their submarine campaign and eventually in the prosecution of the war. He even appears to think that it will have a greater effect than if we were to declare war out of hand.
He used the illustration of a man with a pistol in his hand being able to intimidate a robber whom he is not certain of hitting, whereas if he has fired and has not hit or wounded him seriously, the robber may not be stopped. “Why not let the Germans declare war?”, he asked. Naturally, he said that he preferred that we should go into the war; but to do this there must be clear grounds for coming in and until we shall be satisfied on this point, he evidently thinks that [Page 756] the requisitioning of the interned ships will be a tremendous aid to the Allied cause. Further, he thinks that it may be followed by Brazil. He was so earnest about this that I have just telegraphed you.71 Rodd, the English Ambassador, as I telegraphed, also holds this view. There is a great and apparently growing apprehension here that the “push” which will begin as soon as the weather permits, will be a tremendous fight and cause tremendous slaughter. It is thought that the chief weight of the German attack will be thrown against the Italian front, which is almost the only part of the line in which they have not exerted their full force hitherto and both sides appear to be making changes with a view to meeting the brunt of the other’s attack. There is a rumor of dissensions between Cadorna and the Duc d’Aosta, who commands the third army, and there is talk of the Duc d’Aosta coming to Rome to take the place of the Duke of Genoa as the King’s regent. There was talk a short time since of the Duc d’Abruzzi taking this place; but that passed and I do not know what truth there is in this last story either.
The Germans and Austrians are thought here to be prosecuting their submarine warfare with the greatest activity possible. I hear to-day that two big Italian ships have just been sunk, one a grain ship sunk two days ago off the coast of Spain, the other a passenger ship sunk near Malta. Of the latter ship three boats have been picked up or have landed; but three others are still missing.
The Chinese Minister called to-day to make inquiry as to the facts of the American four-masted schooner Lyman M. Law, [sunk] five or six days ago near the coast of Sardinia. He says that his government has instructed him to keep it informed as to the facts incident to the sinking of all ships whatever; that his government is deeply interested in this matter and desires to keep in touch with the United States and to know at the earliest moment possible what our action is in this great crisis. He called my attention to a denial in one of the Roman papers of yesterday evening of a suggestion which had appeared in the Paris correspondence of that paper, saying that the energetic protest of the Pekin government against the German submarine blockade was the result of a suggestion on the part of another government, (viz. ourselves). The correction denies completely this suggestion and declares that the action of China was the result of the spontaneous, energetic, and generous decision of the Chinese government itself.
The crew of the above mentioned schooner, Lyman M. Law are to land to-day at Civitavecchia which is in the Rome district, and our Consul, Mr. Tredwell, has gone there to receive them and to get [Page 757] their sworn statements. The sworn statement of the captain has already been telegraphed by him.
I am sending this letter about things which may already have come to a crisis long before this reaches you. It is not thought here that Germany could withdraw from the position which she has assumed and therefore it is believed that we shall soon be at war with her.
The newspapers contain reports of the effects of the German propaganda in Mexico and Cuba, and the results of the propaganda in Mexico as reported,—that is the prohibition on the export of supplies to any of the Allied countries, is so in accord with the repeated suggestions which have come to me from Vatican sources as to how the President might stop the war, i. e., by taking a similar step, that taken in connection with certain other things, I feel pretty sure that the influence of the Vatican has also been exerted on Carranza. . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
I have been asked by the writer of the pamphlet entitled Pace giusta e durata to send a half dozen copies for him to various peace advocates in America. He mentioned the Department of State and Mr. Bryan and I am accordingly going to send these, although I have not had an opportunity to read them. It is printed by the Vatican press and from a little glance which I have taken into it, it seems to be quite anti-Ally. I do not think, however, that it is likely to hurt or affect either you or Mr. Bryan in any views which you hold.
It is not thought here that the Germans will or perhaps can retire from the position which they have assumed, as the propaganda in favor of the submarine policy has had a great success among the German people, and they are really buoyed up by the belief that they may win out or possibly will win out within three or four months and to withdraw now might almost bring on something like a revolution. It is believed, however, that in a few months they will be in a different frame of mind. This is the opinion, as I gather it, of Baron Sonnino himself. Accordingly, it is believed here that we shall soon be at war, and it is rather expected that if we go to war, we shall do something remarkable immediately.
Believe me [etc.]
- Telegram not printed.↩