763.72/3171½
The Ambassador in Italy (Page) to President Wilson
My Dear Mr. President: I have written a letter to the Secretary Mr. Lansing by this pouch which it may interest you to see and I will not repeat anything that I have said in that letter.
The unknown quantity in the present problem, here at least, seems to be Russia. No one here appears to know just what is going on [Page 752] there. The Russians themselves say that Russia is getting ready for a great move and that she will be able to save Roumania; that the change will take place very soon, et cetera. They also declare that Russia is absolutely determined to carry the war through to complete victory. I am sensible myself that there at least seems to be, not only considerable ignorance here among the representatives of the other Allies as to what Russia is doing or can do; but also some anxiety on this point. According to what we read and hear here, the Russian cabinet appears to be in a constant state of change, or “crisis”, as they say here. Ministers succeed Ministers with startling rapidity, without any one here knowing precisely why. One thing, however, appears reasonably certain, that Russia has recently been on the verge of making some sort of separate accommodation, if not actually a separate peace, and the whole matter of the Dardanelles and Constantinople has come out in consequence of this fact. As my telegram of yesterday stated,68 Russia seems to be in a fair way of getting from the other Allies a hand sufficiently free to give her a very preponderant position as regards, not only Eastern and Southeastern Europe; but even the Orient itself. I draw from this the conclusion that it was necessary to make large concessions to Russia, either to secure her continued co-operation or to make it appear worth while to her to face the conditions in which she finds herself and to put forth extraordinary efforts.
There seems a general impression here that Germany may be in a bad way, economically, but that Austria is certainly in an exceedingly bad way. I incline to the opinion that the Memorandum to which I have referred in my letter to Mr. Lansing, was brought to my attention because of the untoward condition in which Austria-Hungary is at present and the apprehension that Russia may become absolutely preponderant in Southeastern Europe.
As you will have heard, the recent Conference here of the Prime Ministers of the Allies, excepting that of Russia,—with their leading military representatives, besides deciding on an answer to your Note, decided also to create a mobile army the size of which is set at anywhere from three-quarters of a million to a million men, composed of forces of all the Allies to be used wherever occasion demands. In pursuance of this, considerable numbers of French troops have been coming into Italy,—whether for use in the Balkans or for use in Italy along her northern battle front, I have not so far been able to ascertain. Some say one thing, some another. It was, however, in consequence of this proposed mobile army, no less perhaps than in consequence of the alleged increase of German Austrian forces along the Swiss northern and western frontier, that Switzerland [Page 753] the other day decided to mobilize the greater part of her troops. The press here, as in the other Allied countries, makes the claim that this mobilization is entirely against Germany and Austria, while I see the latter say it is against the Allies. I think it may be said with certainty that it is not against the Allies solely that Switzerland has mobilized. I know that the Swiss Government made representations to the Allies that the step was not taken with any hostile intent against them. It was taken to protect Switzerland’s neutrality from aggression on either side. This is the real fact and I understand that Switzerland now feels pretty well assured that neither side in the great combat will undertake to do that which will fling the whole weight of her force, which although small by modern reckoning, is pretty compact,—against them.
I learn from the best authority here that Switzerland at present, although very short of supplies, has sufficient for her immediate needs. A short time ago there was a great discussion among the Allies as to whether Switzerland should be permitted to export anything into Germany, which she imported, and that England was for excluding her right to export anything whatever. She was obliged, however, to yield to the extent of permitting the exportation of what is called here “agrume”, that is, fruits such as oranges, lemons, citron, etc. and possibly certain vegetables such as onions, inasmuch as Sicily and Southern Italy, where these fruits are the principal staple of production and export, absolutely demanded it, and Italy herself stated that it was necessary to make this concession.
Switzerland, as you know, has been a great producer of condensed milk, cheese, butter, etc. and I learn that there is great apprehension lest, owing to the inability to get a continuance of imports of winter feed for the cattle, they will have to be killed, in sufficient numbers at least to injure seriously this source of her supply.
I have been much troubled recently to find how far Italy has appeared to think it necessary to yield to what I cannot but think is a sort of dictatorship on the part of England with regard to certain very important necessaries of life here for which Italy is entirely dependent on importations, such as coal, grain, steel, etc. There is a very apparent propaganda in progress and not a great deal that is American escapes the interference on the part of these British propagandists in one way or another, the general method being that which dates back to the earliest days of Rome, of whispers that these American representatives have Austrian connections and are really working not in Italy’s interest.
I took the matter up informally with the Minister of Foreign Affairs. He, however, gave me to understand that, with regard to the particular articles as to which I approached him,—coal, grain, steel,— [Page 754] Italy had no choice. It was a matter of necessity for her to fix prices in order to secure a guarantee of the quantities of these staples necessary for her existence. My contention with him was that America could not compete if the prices were that at which they were fixed; but that if she were left to take her chance of finding a market, she would bring coal, etc. to Italy. The Minister said that this was a war measure and was necessary for the reasons he gave me, as otherwise the war could not continue; but he said it would not be continued after the war.
The text of your address of this afternoon before the Senate69 arrived here in sufficient time to have it put in proper shape to deliver, according to instructions, this evening at the hour of its delivery in Washington, and I have made an appointment with the Minister of Foreign Affairs for that purpose. At the same time I am having to-day careful translation made from English into Italian, so that if necessary I may send it with the English text for publication in the press here.
Your Note of the 18th of December70 suffered very much I think from the somewhat inexact translation made here at the Foreign Office, and I attribute a part of the virulence of attack made on it here in the press, to this translation.
I do not, however, mean to attribute too large a part of this attack to this cause, for I feel sure that the cue came from the outside and I believe that it was given because there was a serious apprehension that the suggestion of Peace might weaken the power of the Allied countries.
The position that was allowed to be taken that you had declared the two sides to be of similar merit was so manifestly without foundation that I feel very well assured that no representative of any Government who read your note, really believed what the press declared.
I think it quite possible that at the very beginning some of them suspected that Germany had asked you to intervene in some way; but certainly they were soon disillusioned and I do not think that this view was ever entertained by Baron Sonnino. A certain amount of mischief has resulted from the efforts of certain American busybodies who have undertaken a sort of propaganda to create in the minds of representatives of the Allies as well as in the public mind, the impression that you and your administration speak rather for a fraction than for the whole of the American people. Even the complete reversal of their prophecy that you would not be re-elected, has not entirely failed to stop them and there is so much [Page 755] ignorance here as to America that their propaganda is at times really mischievous.
Immediately after your Note came out, I heard from one of the Ministries here a reference to the impression which had been made by the impertinent activities of the man who in Paris is the sort of head and front of this propaganda and more recently the press has occasionally had a reference to the opinion of Americans of standing who are critical of the position which you have set forth in your note.
I cannot close this without expressing to you the enormous interest which your address before the Senate set for this afternoon has for me. It is a very high note which you have struck. I do not see how it could be higher. I shall await with breathless interest its effect. I do not mean its immediate reception; but its subsequent influence on the present world conflict and its consequences. Whether the world is ready for it or not remains to be seen. In any event, it is nearer to a declaration of the principle of right, based on the highest ethical foundation, than anything that I remember in any State paper, of which I have knowledge.
Believe me [etc.]