763.72/2142½
The Ambassador in Italy (Page) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 27.]
My Dear Mr. Secretary: The present situation, on the outside, in Italy is about the same as it was when last I wrote you. The successes of the German and Austrian forces against Russia have progressed so rapidly and with so little interruption, except for the failure to capture Riga, that it has cast a sort of gloom over the representatives of the other side; though they speak of it and I think consider it only a temporary advantage for the allied Empires. It is recognized however as having the immediate serious effect of prolonging the war and of turning the Balkan States, certainly for the present, from any idea that they may have had of joining the Quadruplice Allies. Saturday afternoon I went with Mrs. Page down to Fiuggi, a summer place in the mountains some forty five or fifty miles from Rome, where both the French and Russian Ambassadors were staying, and the Chilean and Brazilian Ministers as well as the Belgian Minister, and I had an opportunity of seeing more of these colleagues than one has in Rome.
The first two were undoubtedly much depressed by the news from Russia but both of them spoke with confidence of the final outcome and I believe expressed their real conviction, the importance of which consists in its being a reflection of the feeling in their respective countries. One of the most serious results of the German success in that region is the effect on the Balkan States alluded to. It looks at present as though Bulgaria had reached an agreement with Turkey by which in consideration of concessions made her by the latter she will permit munitions of war and other things as well to pass through her borders to Turkey. If she does it will probably mean that Germany will send a strong force to Constantinople to aid the Turks. This will of course bring Bulgaria into the war on their side. In such event it would scarcely seem possible that Greece and Roumania would abstain from joining the Allies.
One thing on which all here appear united is the necessity of the Allies sending a sufficient force immediately to capture Constantinople. Greece I understand holds the view that the only way to effect this will be to overawe Bulgaria and push for Constantinople [Page 726] from that side. Should Bulgaria however side actively with Germany, Austria, and Turkey and should Germany aid her with a strong force it will be no easier to capture Constantinople from that side than by way of the Dardanelles. However it seems that France is unquestionably sending troops to the Dardanelles and Italy is certainly sending troops south though where they go afterwards I have not yet learned.
I had a long talk this morning with the Minister for Foreign Affairs . . . He thinks that the United States would exert a great moral influence if she declared war on Germany—in consequence of Germany’s attitude and acts at sea against us—and that she would have a very important part to play when it comes to making peace. He thinks that this influence would be of great importance even if she never sent a ship or a regiment to Europe as the United States would be the coolest member of the peace congress and her views would probably be less influenced by passion than those of other members of the congress just out of a violent war. I told him that I did not believe either our Government or any important element among our people wished to go to war or would go to war except on necessity. In expressing this opinion I of course gave him to understand that I had no authority and that I was not speaking officially. I added that the breaking off of relations was contingent upon the future result of the steps now being taken between the two governments. He expressed the view that should the Government of the United States be limited as I appeared to think at most to breaking off relations, the moral effect of this step would be greatly increased if the United States should strengthen her military and naval power. In this action he felt that she might have a great moral effect. He spoke very earnestly and I feel sure, as I said, that he speaks his convictions.
I see from the press that we have had a repetition after a century and a third of the Plattsburg address. Mr. Roosevelt’s speech, except for the openness with which it was delivered, presents a curious parallel with the anonymous address which Major Armstrong circulated through Washington’s camp at Plattsburg [Newburgh] one hundred and thirty odd years ago. I think the prompt action reported in the papers touching the matter seems to have had an excellent effect and if, as the papers say, the stand taken by the President proves effective without a war, not all the speeches which Mr. Roosevelt and his adherents can make will have any effect.
Since writing the foregoing I have had a talk with the Under Secretary Comm. de Martino who has a minister’s rank (and who is one of the most important men in the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, his title being Chief of the Cabinet of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs) [Page 727] on the matter as to which I have telegraphed you to-day:48 the embargo on the sale of arms to a belligerent. He, I found, confirmed what I already believed to be the fact, that Italy placed an embargo on the exportation of arms and munitions of war last autumn as she did on the exportation of many other important commodities, but this was solely because she needed these things herself and de Martino mentioned the fact that the sale of arms by a neutral to belligerents was entirely in accord with the principles of International Law and covered by the rules of the Hague Convention.
I have also telegraphed you to-day, simply that you might be informed about it, as to what is the view taken of the resumé of the German reply to our Note which has appeared in the press.49 The general opinion of public men which is reflected in a way in the press is that Germany has not really made the concessions which at first sight her Note appears to make and while she says she will give warning she does not say that she will undertake to secure the personal safety of the ship’s company. Of course the Note itself may clear up this point. A further criticism here is that underneath it all is a condition that the United States should pledge herself to secure from England a loosening of the blockade. There is in fact a pretty general idea here that Germany knows that her submarine policy has not proved successful and has aroused more resentment on the part of neutrals than it was worth. I incline to this opinion myself but frankly admit that I am not sufficiently informed to have an entirely clear opinion on this point. On one point which I have alluded to above I find my conviction much strengthened as time passes and this is that Germany will come after us the first time she has an opportunity to do so. Many things which have come to my knowledge, small things, point to what seems to me a very firmly lodged intention on her part to put the Monroe Doctrine to the test at the earliest possible moment.
Italy does not seem to be making any very great progress in her invasion of the region beyond the Austrian frontier, though her progress appears to have been fairly steady and she is said to have conquered the first line of Austrian defenses, which of course would be right on the border, and to be making steady progress against the second line after which there is the third line, the most difficult of all to capture. Her losses are not known; but I believe them to have been fairly heavy and have heard them reckoned as high as twenty seven thousand. I was interested to hear the Russian Ambassador, who is a very clever man, say to-day when I saw him for a moment, [Page 728] that the Italians, he thought, should confine activity to the Austrian frontier, especially in the Isonzo region, with the view to threatening Vienna rather than to send Italian troops to the Dardanelles, where, according to his view England should mass sufficient troops to bring that enterprise to a successful conclusion. I wondered how far this view, which I feel was sincere, was based on the traditional politics which center about the Dardanelles and the eastern Mediterranean.
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Believe me [etc.]
- Foreign Relations, 1915, supp., p. 802.↩
- This telegram of Ambassador Page is not printed. For the American note, see ibid., p. 480, and for the German Ambassador’s reply, ibid., p. 530.↩