763.72/2141½
The Ambassador in Italy (Page) to the Secretary of State
My Dear Mr. Secretary: Before this reaches you Italy will probably be at open war with Turkey, as she has substantially been in fact for some little time, though no declaration of war has yet been made, so far as is known here. It would be more proper to say, perhaps, that Turkey is at war with Italy, as Italy has committed no act of war against Turkey. Whether this will change in any way the situation in the Balkans remains to be seen. The fact is that the Balkan muddle is so great that no one appears to know what the final result there will be. It is only known that Italy and the other Powers of the Quadruplice are doing what they can to bring them into concert; a thing so difficult as to seem quite impossible. The Balkan Powers have all been tremendously staggered by the Russian situation, and even though Venizelos should resume the reins of Government in Greece, it is hardly expected that he will move at present to have Greece enter the lists. There is much talk of Roumania coming in with Russia, but few expect her to do so unless Russia shall prove able to recover and make head against Germany in the south, which so far there is no sign of her being able to do. Bulgaria presents a somewhat different situation, and is so important to the Allies that they must be doing everything in their power by promises and whatever means are at their disposal to induce Bulgaria to join them. If they could induce her to do [Page 724] this it would probably settle Turkey’s fate in a very short time, as she is generally believed to be very short of all means of defence and to be dependent on Germany by way of Bulgaria for nearly everything. Essad Pashá who seems to be the strongest man in Turkey is absolutely pro-German and is sustained, it appears, not only by the Turks, but by a strong German force, who seem to have the upper hand in Constantinople; in fact at this moment Constantinople is quite a German stronghold.
While it is said that Russia was promised possession of Constantinople and the Dardanelles, and undoubtedly has looked forward to this, and while France is believed to have been acquiescent in this plan, so far as I can find out, none of the other Powers, either among the Allies or in the Eastern Mediterranean have been desirous of such a disposition of this apple of discord on which they all look with longing eyes.
I myself feel that the most probable solution of the whole matter will be that in the end Constantinople will be left in the hands of the Porte with a modest hinterland and the city and the Straits will be neutralized and put under the protection of the Powers; otherwise it will almost certainly prove, what I have said, an apple of discord, and no one knows what difficulties will arise over it at the close of the present immense war.
I feel very much pleased at having secured the release of the several Italians, American citizens, born after their father’s naturalization, and I am now urging on Baron Sonnino the necessity of obviating all possibility of friction between our two countries by entering into a Convention of Naturalization. Confidentially, I think I can say that he is entirely at one with me in regard to the importance of doing this, and I am hopeful of being able to carry it through. He tells me that he is trying to find some basis on which the matter can be arranged to the mutual satisfaction of us both, without undertaking to change the law of Italy, which is in a way fundamental. Several of these young men have not yet been found, but are being searched for, he informs me, and will be he thinks released, when found. This also is my opinion. One difficulty in these cases is, that these young fellows come over here and pass themselves off as Italians, until they are put in the Army. However, this does not affect the principle.
Please accept my cordial thanks for your kind letter which I received on yesterday. It is a great pleasure to me to be kept informed as to what is going on at home.
We are all looking forward with great interest and more than that to the next step at home, after the reported sinking of the Arabic. I am happy to feel that the matter is in such capable hands, and feel [Page 725] assured that the wisest possible thing will be done. Whatever that may prove to be, all that I have and am is at the service of the President.
With cordial regards [etc.]