763.72/3179

The Secretary of State to President Wilson 79

My Dear Mr. President: I am convinced from our telegrams from Gerard as well as from the press statements which I am confidentially advised emanate from the German Embassy that the German Government intends to renew unrestricted submarine warfare in the near future. If this conviction is correct, we are going to face a serious [Page 582] situation. If Germany adopts that policy every possibility of conversations regarding peace will in my opinion vanish and we will have to take some radical step which will be considered as unneutral.

The question is what can we do to prevent this crisis? After considering the matter from various angles I feel that further pleas and advice will have little effect because the German Government seems to hold the opinion that we will in no event take a strong position but will submit, while protesting, to any submarine policy which they may adopt. I think that this is most unfortunate because it will encourage them to act with ruthlessness and if they do act peace will be further away than ever.

In view of this state of affairs and of the danger which seems imminent I believe that the wisest course is to adopt a firm and uncompromising position as to the right of merchant vessels to arm for defense, and80

  1. This paper bears the notation: “I was writing this letter when the German Amb. brought in the German declaration of this date, so the letter was never finished. Robert Lansing.” For the German declaration referred to, see Foreign Relations, 1917, supp. 1, p. 97.
  2. See footnote 79, p. 581.