Mr. Conger to Mr. Hay.
Peking, January 22, 1903.
Sir: As showing the present condition of affairs in Sze-chuan, I inclose copy of a letter of Doctor Canright, an American medical missionary living at Ch’engtu, the provincial capital.
A more alarming situation exists in the province of Kansu and the northern portion of Shensi. According to newspaper reports and current Chinese rumor, Prince Tuan and General Tung Fu-hsiang, instead of remaining in the banishment to which they were sent, are said to be on the border line of Kansu and Shensi with a large organization of soldiers, preparing to make certain demands upon the Imperial Government, and, if they are not complied with, to raise the standard of rebellion, attacking first the foreigners and the friends of the Government, and then march toward Peking and the coast. Just what their demands are can not be learned.
The disturbances in the south seem to continue, and rumor says that, taking advantage of the antagonism everywhere aroused by the indemnity taxgatherers, it will not be difficult for the two rebellious organizations in the north and the south to unite the whole country in active opposition to the Government and all foreigners in the Empire. With capable leaders, having abundance of arms and money, this would be possible and not improbable, in view of the inherent weakness and present helplessness of the Chinese Government; but the leaders, arms, and funds are all lacking.
I have had several conferences with members of the foreign office, and have insisted that, having telegraphic communication with the various provincial officials, they must be fully cognizant of the situation, and I demanded that they inform me correctly, so that I might intelligently advise our missionaries in that direction.
They say that the local officials all report quiet, but they admit that Prince Tuan and General Tung Fu-hsiang are in the locality mentioned, and undoubtedly have some organized soldiers and others at their command, as well as many friends among the people, but that no offensive operations are indicated and no serious trouble is anticipated as long as the Government makes no movement against them. The ministers say that Prince Tuan and General Tung Fu-hsiang are simply preparing for resistance in case their arrest or removal should be attempted. Knowing well the helpless condition of this Government, I agree that with them “discretion is the better part of valor.”
In the northeastern part of this province, and in Mongolia north, and in the vicinity of Kalgan, there are at present operating many bands of brigands of considerable size, most of them deserted or disbanded soldiers, well armed and equipped, with which the local militia are powerless to contend. Their object, however, seems only to plunder, and at present they appear to avoid foreigners or native Christians.
Viceroy Yuan Shih-k’ai promises in due time to suppress them, but in this case, as well as in that of Prince Tuan and General Tung Fu-hsiang, their toleration for the present may be wise and prudent.
I have, etc.,