Mr. Griscom to Mr. Hay.
Tokyo, July 22, 1903.
Sir: I have the honor to confirm my telegram of the 20th instant.
The above message supplements my telegram of the 14th instant, wherein I stated that I had been credibly informed that Japan would shortly make overtures to the Russian Government at St. Petersburg with a view to opening up a discussion of the situation in Manchuria. Since the 14th instant I have been placed in possession of a little more detailed information concerning the nature of the proposals which Japan will make, and I therefore deemed it advisable to telegraph you further. The information reached me from the same source referred to in my dispatch of the 14th instant, and, is unofficial, but in my opinion worthy of full credence.
[Page 617]It appears that the Japanese Government will approach Russia in a friendly spirit and will begin by asking if Russia is willing to open a discussion of the Manchurian question. If Russia gives a favorable reply Japan will then propose a discussion on the basis of the propositions set forth in my telegram. It will be seen that Japan will suggest an exchange whereby it will recognize the rights already possessed by Russia in Manchuria, based on treaties or conventions now published, and in return that Russia recognize that in Korea Japan is “interested in a peculiar degree, politically as well as commercially and industrially.” I quote article 1 of the Anglo-Japanese treaty of alliance, as my information is that Japan will demand a very general recognition of her special interest in Korea, on the same lines as explained in article 1 of the treaty of alliance. I am not informed as to whether Japan’s proposals include the remainder of article 1, in which it is stated that “it will be admissible for either of them to take such measures as may be indispensible in order to safeguard those interests, etc.”
The Japanese Government is anxious to have the discussion proceed on very broad and general lines, and to avoid details, such as open ports in Manchuria, quarantine commission, the right to appoint consuls, etc. * * *
In the event of Russia refusing to admit of a discussion of the question it is impossible to predict the course which the Japanese Government will pursue. I am inclined to think that if the present Government continues in power it would take some decided action. Public opinion in Japan, without being bellicose, is strong for some settlement of the disturbed situation in the Far East. The Japanese press is practically unanimous on the subject.
I have, etc.,