Mr. Griscom to Mr. Hay.
Tokyo, July 14, 1903.
Sir: I have the honor to confirm my telegram of this date.
The Government of Japan appears to have been for some time past gradually working up to the point of seeking a solution of the situation in Manchuria by direct negotiations with the Russian Government at at St. Petersburg. The Japanese minister at Peking has been endeavoring to the best of his ability to strengthen the Chinese Government in its attitude toward the Russian demands concerning Manchuria. About the 18th of June the Chinese Government went so far as to send a memorandum to the Russian minister, Mr. Lessar, wherein it was set forth that the Russian demands could not be conceded. Mr. Lessar returned this memorandum to the Chinese Government with the statement that it could not possibly be made the basis for future negotiations. Although this result is in a measure satisfactory, yet the Japanese Government apparently considers that there is little prospect of arriving at a definite settlement of the Manchurian question by any negotiations at Peking. It would seem evident that a practical solution can be reached only by taking the matter up with the Russian Government at St. Petersburg, or at least it is to this conclusion that the Japanese Government has now arrived. * * *
The present Japanese ministry is inclined, apparently, to approach Russia in a friendly spirit, but with firm intention of bringing about a full discussion of the Manchurian question. I am given to understand that the steps to be taken have not yet been precisely determined. The ministry for foreign affairs is carefully considering the various methods of approaching Russia and the nature of the proposals to be made. This cabinet, if allowed a free hand, will undoubtedly make some move. The only element of doubt lies in the present condition of Japanese [Page 616] domestic politics. In order to understand the situation it is necessary to bear in mind that the prime minister and his cabinet are not absolute in their power. The consent of the Emperor must be obtained before any important measure or policy can be definitely determined upon. The Emperor never makes an important decision without first consulting the men who are called the “Elder Statesmen” of the Empire. There are four or five of these “Eider Statesmen,” but Marquis Ito and Marquis Yamagata are the two whose words carry the greatest weight * * * The “Eider Statesmen” are not an organized official body created by the constitution, but the Emperor gives their advice such great consideration that they are quite as effective and quite as much to be considered as if duly and legally constituted a part of the Government. * * *
We have no knowledge here as to how a proposition by Japan to discuss the Manchurian question would be received by the Russian Government. * * *