No. 193.
Mr. Marsh
to Mr. Frelinghuysen
.
Rome , April 19, 1882. (Received May 9.)
Sir: I have forwarded to the Department of State several copies, in newspaper and pamphlet form, of the remarkable financial exposition recently made to the Italian Parliament by the minister, Magliani. It is a document of uncommon ability, and presents an unexpectedly encouraging view of the condition of the national finances, and of the success with which they have been administered during the past year.
Whether the anticipations of the minister will be realized to their full extent is, at the least, doubtful.
The journals of the opposition are already predicting that, though large loans have been negotiated for the purpose of facilitating the resumption of specie payment, the measure will not really be effected during the present year. It is easy to imagine that a failure of the crops for the coming season may occasion serious embarrassments, which may be augmented by foreign financial measures or political complications. These, however, are not matters of calculation; but though the efforts of European governments have succeeded, for the present, in allaying many threatening symptoms of popular disquiet, yet the causes of this disquiet still subsist, and it may at any minute burst into violent eruption. The immediate danger to Italian finances is that Parliament may be compelled by local influences to commit itself to enterprises in the way of internal and municipal improvements which, if not altogether [Page 367] visionary, do not promise to be, at least at present, remunerative. Add to this the enormous expenditure which is already more or less urgently demanded in military circles for the purpose of national defense, and it will be seen that the Italian exchequer may be soon subjected to drafts beyond its capacity to meet.
The whole northern land-frontier bordering on the dominions of Austria, Switzerland, and France is to a great extent undefended, the powerful works of the old frontier having been rendered useless by recent changes of boundary which may require the construction of costly fortifications at points corresponding to those of the famous Quadrilateral, formerly so celebrated in European warfare. The coast line of Italy, which, including the shores of Sicily and Sardinia, is of very great extent, is at present rendered partially secure rather by the want of harbors of sufficient depth of water for the powerful vessels recently constructed and now constructing by almost every government in Europe than by defensive works capable of contending against such means of attack. In the opinion of able engineers expensive constructions ought to be at once commenced and new lines of railway planned with special reference to military communication, and public sentiment seems to demand that the general policy of the government should be subordinated to considerations of military efficiency.
The abolition of the odious and impolitic grist tax must operate as a considerable relief to the laboring classes, and the surrender of the equally obnoxious government monopoly of salt is earnestly demanded by able and influential statesmen, both on economic and sanitary grounds. Socialistic and other disorganizing opinions do not at present wear a threatening aspect in Italy, but the disparity in the physical condition of the productive and the unproductive classes is becoming too great to be submitted to much longer without violent attempt at reform.
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The present administration* * * has on the whole been conducted with remarkable ability and success, and it has acquired a hold upon public confidence which will not easily be shaken.
I have, &c.,