No. 194.
Mr. E. Joy Morris to Mr. Fish.
Sir: The Turkish government, however favorably it may have been disposed toward its ancient ally, France, in the beginning of the present war between Prussia and France, has been constrained by the character of the contest and the attitude of other powers to observe the strictest neutrality. It has been obliged, however, to largely increase its armaments, in order to be prepared for future contingencies. The impaired military power and prestige of France is a source of serious apprehension to the Porte. Upon that power it has always relied when [Page 238] the integrity, of the empire was assailed, and it has ever found it ready to respond to appeal for aid. Outside of France, England is the only other power which may be regarded as a permanent ally of Turkey. Austria aims at her spoliation on the Adriatic and Danube. Italy is regarded as the instrument of greater powers, and as likely to take any course which her ambition and interests may dictate. Prussia is regarded as the secret ally of Russia in oriental matters, and as disposed to directly or indirectly further the views of the latter in the East. Russia, whatever may be her professions of good will, is rightfully looked upon as a neutral enemy to Turkey, and as constantly intriguing for the dismemberment of the empire. If Prussia shall succeed in yet further enfeebling France, the position of the Porte will become very critical, and the more so as Russia has preserved her military resources intact. The system of railways in Russia, interlocking, as it does, all points of the empire, and converging on the Austrian and Turkish frontiers, enables Russia to throw her whole army on any given point at any moment, and to attack Turkey with an overwhelming might, while keeping open her lines of communication.
Russia, with the consummate diplomatic sagacity and craft that distinguishes her, will try to take advantage of the crisis and provoke a revision of the treaties of 1856, by which the Black Sea was neutralized, and the Bosphorus and Dardanelles were closed to the passage of her vessels of war. It will be strange if she does not succeed, aiming, as she will, to obtain honorable conditions of peace for France, and exercising, as she will, a dominating influence in settling the terms of peace. The Black Sea opened to the fleets of Russia, Sebastopol again a naval dock-yard and harbor, and the Bosphorus and Dardanelles free for the passage of Russian men-of-war, Constantinople would be in constant danger, and could be attacked and taken before it could be relieved by outside aid.
It will thus be seen that the oriental question is likely soon to be reopened, and under very unfavorable auspices to the security of Turkey.
The Viceroy of Egypt, although nominally now in good relations with the Porte, is really intriguing again for independence. He is in secret relations with Russia, and will take advantage of circumstances to realize his ambitious aspirations. It is not altogether improbable that he might become sovereign of an Arabic kingdom, including Syria, the pashalic of Tripoli, Arabia, Egypt, and possibly Abyssinia also.
Roumania is in a state of agitation, fomented by foreign influences, and a revolution there, ending in the expulsion of Prince Charles, is not improbable. Should such a revolution occur, it may lead to a tripartite occupation of the country by Russia, Austria, and Turkey, and its eventual absorption by Austria and Russia. A revolution in Roumania is desired by certain parties, in order to increase the necessity of another European congress. Above all these contingencies looms the specter of a great republican confederation, composed of republics in France, Spain, Italy and Switzerland, and probably Greece. Should a republic be declared in France, it will sooner or later be followed by republics in Spain, Italy, and Greece, and the beginning of the end of monarchy in Europe will be apparent. The institution of such governments would naturally lead to a confederation between them, and one-half of Europe would thus become republican. The policy of such a confederation would be a peaceful one; it would lead to the suppression of standing armies, to the cessation of war, perhaps of ambition, and to the elevation and improvement of the moral and intellectual condition of the masses, who have heretofore too often been considered only as the blind instruments of the mad ambition of kings. Such a confederation would be a natural ally of the United [Page 239] States, increasing our moral and political power and rendering us yet more secure against the intrigues, jealousies, and hostility of those governments which desire our downfall and the dissolution of the American Union. Although we cannot promote the creation of such political combinations, we can have no reason to regret the rise of governmental forms which will deliver Europe from the scourge of constantly renewing wars, and which will put an end to the abuses and evils against which outraged humanity has for centuries protested in vain. Past experience will teach the necessity of establishing future European republics on a firm basis that will guarantee their induring existence, and we shall not again see the short-lived and disastrous experiments at republican government which we have hitherto witnessed in Europe.
Although we cannot safely predict the political future of Europe for any long period ahead from the standpoint of view I occupy here, I am however persuaded that we are on the eve of great changes, and tending in the drift above suggested, and having an inevitable tendency to vastly increase the authority of the United States over governments of a kindred form, and with like political sympathies.