No. 169.
Mr. Bancroft to Mr. Fish.
Sir: Several causes have combined to delay operations against Paris far beyond the time that was at first assigned for them. The King is disinclined to damage the city. The officers of the army have been relying for success on the deficiency of food among the besieged; the heavy cost that transport from the termination of the railways have cut up the roads and made them almost bottomless; two hundred wagons have been used where two thousand are needed, and the construction of the batteries and collection of material have proceeded somewhat languidly. Meantime the besieged have used military skill and their great numbers to complete their defenses. The men have been organized and trained to the offices of war, and their courage and [Page 216] temper have hardened, so that the attack on Paris is now attended with increased difficulty, except only that the food within the walls is constantly growing less. I am told by good authority that the bombardment, if it takes place at all, cannot begin before the 20th, and probably not so soon as that. In short, it is evident that the Germans wish to avoid a bombardment if possible, although they are preparing for it as tor an eventual necessity. Mr. Thiers went on his mission to Count Bismarck without any plenipotentiary authority whatever. He was very much in earnest, and one of his interviews with the chancellor lasted seventeen hours uninterruptedly. After this he returned to Paris for powers, which were refused him. Jules Favre and Gambetta professed to have been in favor of a truce; Trochu, whose opinion prevailed, was most decidedly against it. The Germans are of opinion that Paris, under any circumstances, must fall. The French are of opinion that unless Trochu can make vigorous and successful sallies it must fall. Another month will hardly go by without manifestly approaching a solution of the question so far as Paris is concerned; but as yet I see nothing that promises a speedy establishment of peace.
The negotiations for receiving the southern states into the North German Union, which will then become the German Union, continue, it seems probable that at the approaching session of the Reichstag Baden, Würtemberg, and perhaps Hesse, will be at once received. Bavaria may hold out a little longer, but public opinion decided not to sacrifice the efficiency of the consolidated union to the scruples of a wayward recusant, and Bavaria may for a time, but not for a very long time, occupy the position of North Carolina after the organization of our Government in 1789.
Your dispatches, as far as No. 257, have been received, with the exception of No. 237, which appears to have been lost on the way.