155. Notes of a Meeting1
Special Advisors mtg w/ Pres
JMP intro/bkgrd
CAP Intro/ rvw histry
— Asked 100 in silos, Cong said no
— appt Scowcroft; said in silos
Options: (1) [less than 1 line not declassified]
— predetermined launch pts
— least expensive2
— [1 line not declassified]
— widely dispersed
— on line starting 1990
(2) [less than 1 line not declassified]
— [less than 1 line not declassified] (deception)
[Page 543]— 360 mi2
— grave doubts about
— a lot of similarities to [less than 1 line not declassified] (reflects services attachment to)
— very high cost, some higher survivability (no [illegible] I will not be rec)
(3) [less than 1 line not declassified]
— similar, enormous amt of land
— EIS 999 acres
— some more uncertainty
(4) [less than 1 line not declassified]
— now [less than 1 line not declassified]
— can get [less than 1 line not declassified] give the treatment, special kind of geology)
— cost high for [number not declassified], not much higher for [less than 1 line not declassified]
— don’t get certain srv if hit close (crater even if don’t violate)
— perhaps, at this pt second best (very likely not finally rec)
On basis of what I’ve seen so far, likely see Garrison rail
— no new land
— on public land
— not likely a public outcry
SMALL ICBM
• Rec at this pt go to mobile, hardened carrier
— diff is that 1RV, [less than 1 line not declassified]
— is favorite of 2, 3 people in Congress
— $33B if go w/original weight
— then said would go to 2 w/h, increase w/h
— not till 1994
• I have to tell you that I’ve never felt msl was very eff, or very useful
• Cost Comparisons
another option #5, [less than 1 line not declassified] not considered very much
at moment, most probably going to rec
— [less than 1 line not declassified]
— not go w/ SM ICBM
[Page 544]Pres:
— I can see people asking why doing, if are going to destry
— Yet must have appearance to go ahead if get Soviets to be serious
— Regard Small, perhaps get each Congressman to take one in each district
Pres: —Don’t see how anyone (Pres) could sit at that desk and not retaliate (send out msles) [illegible] hit empty sites.
Crowe: Hell of dilemma for Soviets, if send only 100, is suicide for them; if send 1000, we’ll know in seconds
CAP: —If we don’t proceed w/ small ICBM, then have $1.2B in five years
— have to start production 1989, 1990
JMP: —What do we need to get into next budget 1988, 1989 to convince Soviets
Cap: —If we don’t go w/small ICBM, then we have $1.2B avail FY87
Pres: —Perhaps thing is to look like we’re going ahead
Crowe: —In looking ahead to what do beyond Reyk—could use [less than 1 line not declassified] not Small ICBM
Regan: (1) Cost of [less than 1 line not declassified]
CAP: (1) Approx $800M
Regan: Any way to proceed w/both for nego purpose
Crowe: —From stnpt nego w/ Soviets, believe they [illegible] capability, so they look at [number not declassified] w/h’s
— believe for military reasons/ nego reasons, don’t need to do
— political is another problem, however
[less than 1 line not declassified]
— bias toward: get out on CONUS
— are less accurate, although close
— comm real time is problem but need to work on
— larger w/h
— could conceivably launch from bottom
Pres: But could keep (again) R&D going for small ICBM at lower level to keep for nego purpose.
JMP: (1) Work w/Cap/Bill to consider
— Arms Control strategy
— Strategy w/Cong
— looks like its obvious on rail mobile re: MX.
[Page 545]Pres: Two pts in mind
(1) Soviets have to believe in arms [illegible]??
(2) Probs w/ Public re: build and destroy
CAP: Maggie [illegible] if she knows we’re proceeding w/MX—3
- Source: Reagan Library, Alton Keel Files, Subject File, Ballistic Missile Defense. No classification marking. Drafted by Keel, who hand wrote the notes. The editor transcribed the portion of the text here specifically for this volume. An image of the notes is Appendix A. According to the President’s Daily Diary, Reagan met with Bush, Weinberger, Crowe, Regan, Poindexter, and Keel in the Oval Office from 11 until 11:58 a.m. (Reagan Library, President’s Daily Diary) No formal memorandum of conversation was found.↩
- Keel wrote “ordinary looking trains” in the left-hand margin beside this point.↩
- In a personal diary entry of November 7, Reagan wrote: “We had a meeting with Cap W. & Admiral Crowe (Chmn. joint Chiefs of staff). This was on forming a plan for continuing the modernization of nuc. weapons at same time we are talking eliminating of such weapons. Our own people are going to challenge our doing this—while Russians will stiffen their backs if we show signs of not doing it. I’ve charged the chiefs to come up with a plan that meets this double problem.” (Brinkley, ed., The Reagan Diaries, vol. II: November 1985–January 1989, p. 655)↩