162. Telegram From the Embassy in the Soviet Union to the Department of State1
4671. Subject: Brezhnev Summit Counterproposal. Ref: Moscow 4629.2
1. C—Entire text.
2. Summary. Brezhnev’s “response” to Pravda on the possibility of a U.S.-Soviet summit reflects Soviet perceptions that President Reagan’s proposal for a meeting on the margins of SSOD–II posed a challenge both to Brezhnev’s health and to Soviet policy. The Soviet counterproposal of an October meeting in a neutral European capital meets both challenges: It casts a vote of confidence in Brezhnev’s health and longev[Page 532]ity, and puts the summit ball back in the American court. In a meeting April 19 with the Ambassador, candidate Politburo member Demichev mentioned in passing that it was not so important [Page 533] whether a summit took place in June or in October; what was important was that it should take place. End summary.
3. One of the key purposes of the Brezhnev statement was to dash domestic and foreign speculation on the Soviet leader’s health and on his viability as a functioning leader. The Pravda “interview” was printed on the front page of all central newspapers, and, judging by the Soviet media handling of past Pravda “interviews,” will be carried on the front page of all local newspapers as well. The suggested October meeting date is sufficiently distant as to commit the Soviets to very little, but at the same time conveys the expectation that Brezhnev will be on the job for the foreseeable future. The fact that the Soviets have suggested a European site for the summit, however, will be read by Soviets as an implicit acknowledgement that the old man is not up to a transatlantic journey.
4. Speculation on Brezhnev’s health has been rampant since the Soviet leader fell ill on March 25. Over the past weekend, rumors were circulating among Soviets all over Moscow that Brezhnev had died. A number of Soviet sources recounting this rumor to Emboffs voiced the possibility that news of Brezhnev’s death is being withheld. One Soviet citizen told us on Saturday that he and several of his friends were expecting the Sunday papers to report Brezhnev’s death. We are still hearing rumors of his death today, despite the summit counterproposal. This climate forms an important backdrop not only to the Brezhnev interview, but also to Ustinov’s remarks in Sochi (reported ref) and to the April 15 press conference staged to deny rumors of Brezhnev’s failing health.
5. Another key purpose of Brezhnev’s proposal of a summit this fall in a European neutral capital was to put the propaganda ball back in the American court. By repeating his 1981 proposal—voiced at the 26th Party Congress—for a Soviet-American summit, Brezhnev claims priority for the idea for the Soviet side. Furthermore, he renews the challenge to the U.S. to join in a high-level dialogue which Soviet propaganda all along has claimed we are avoiding. The statement contains thinly veiled criticism of the way President Reagan broached the subject in his White House press briefing. The Pravda interviewer notes that the President’s remarks on the subject evoked “contradictory commentaries.” Brezhnev agrees, saying that Reagan’s remarks left a “rather diffused impression,” whereas his own statement is “completely clear and definite.”
6. In a meeting April 19 with the Ambassador, candidate Politburo member Demichev mentioned in passing that it was not so important whether a summit took place in June or in October; what was important was that it should take place. Comment: That Demichev, in a private conversation, should emphasize the importance of a summit’s taking place irrespective of the date contrasts with the public media emphasis on October rather than June. This variance is an additional indication that the public mention of October has the ulterior purpose of reassuring readers that Leonid Il’Yich will still be around six months from now. End comment.
- Source: Department of State, Central Foreign Policy File, D820203–0844. Confidential; Priority. Sent Priority for information to USICA and Leningrad. Sent for information to Warsaw, Belgrade, Berlin, Bucharest, Budapest, Munich, Prague, Sofia, Bonn, London, Paris, Rome, the U.S. Mission to NATO, Helsinki, Bern, Beijing, Tokyo, and the U.S. Mission to the U.N.↩
- In telegram 4629 from Moscow, April 17, the Embassy reported on Minister of Defense Ustinov’s April 16 speech in Sochi, the first speech by a Politburo member since Brezhnev fell ill on March 25. (Department of State, Central Foreign Policy File, D820202–0083)↩