20. Memorandum From Secretary of State Vance to President Carter1
[Omitted here is material unrelated to the conflict between Egypt and Libya.]
2. Egypt-Libya Border Fighting: A series of sharp, though limited, Libyan attacks launched over the past 24 hours against several Egyptian border outposts mark a significant escalation of the continuing low-level dispute between the two countries. The Libyans apparently surprised the Egyptian forces and the latter, who have responded with tactical air strikes, appear to be having difficulty in organizing the defense of their outposts. The outcome of the fighting is so far unclear, however.
We believe Qadhafi ordered the Libyan attacks as a show of force to prove Libyan strength and preparedness and to force the Egyptians off balance.
Egypt will at a minimum counter the Libyan provocation with similar raids against Libyan border positions. We do not believe Sadat will immediately implement his long-considered military incursion into Eastern Libya, mainly because Egyptian preparations are apparently not yet complete.
Recent reports indicated that Sadat has become increasingly persuaded that the military option (an incursion into Eastern Libya by one or more brigades, or perhaps a land and airborne raid against Tobruk) is the only one which has a chance for success. Therefore, we cannot rule out a major Egyptian-initiated escalation of the border fighting in the near future (one to four weeks), particularly if the intensity of the military incidents does not abate. In the next day or so we should be able to judge whether either side will try to escalate the fighting.2
[Omitted here is material unrelated to the conflict between Egypt and Libya.]
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Subject File, Box 18, Evening Reports (State): 7/77. Secret. Carter initialed the memorandum and wrote “Cy” in the upper right-hand corner.↩
- In a July 20 memorandum to Carter, Vance wrote: “The Egyptian military command apparently favors coordinated air and armor attacks against Libyan units and outposts along the border in retaliation for Libya’s July 19 attacks. President Sadat, however, wishes to deal Qadhafi a major psychological blow and he has ordered rapid preparations for a more daring airborne commando raid against the Libyan port of Tobruk. Which course will be decided upon is not yet clear, but some form of Egyptian military action is virtually certain.” (Ibid.)↩