57. Paper Prepared in the National Foreign Assessment Center, Central Intelligence Agency1
West Africa: The Second Generation [portion marking not declassified]
Overview
This paper examines the likely characteristics of the future government leaders of seven West African countries—Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon. It assumes most political change will be evolutionary, building on past experience and drawing new leadership from within existing systems. That assumption is necessary for analytic purposes, but evolutionary change [Page 165] is not a foregone conclusion, as the coup in Liberia on 12 April illustrates.2 In any case, we believe that the generational differences investigated in this study will play an important role in shaping future governments in West Africa. [portion marking not declassified]
Most of the incumbent presidents have been in power since these countries became independent, and turnover at the top will affect the timing and manner of changes at other levels. Although there may be interim arrangements in some cases, it appears likely that West Africa will skip a generation when it makes its transition to new leadership. There would seem to be little future for the middle-aged group that has been overshadowed by the generation that led the way to independence. Within a few years we expect to see younger people, now in their thirties and forties, whose ideas have been formed since independence move into positions of authority throughout the area. [portion marking not declassified]
These young leaders are nominal members of the ruling party, as this is generally expected of officeholders, but few are really active in party affairs and even fewer have indicated that they entertain presidential ambitions. Although in most West African societies it is considered bad form to discuss the possibility of change at the top, the reluctance of the young leaders to do so probably indicates a genuine lack of interest in political competition. When they do express views, they deplore the uncertainty and risk that comes with playing politics. In most instances, their aim is to do well in their careers and to ensure a comfortable standard of living for themselves and their families. [portion marking not declassified]
As these West African countries have matured, their elites have grown more similar. There has been an influx into key positions of young people from outlying areas where colonial influences are weaker and where tribal affiliations cross national boundaries. Open borders and frequent multinational meetings strengthen regional ties—a trend recently reinforced by the return of Guinea to an active role in Africa.3 [portion marking not declassified]
Coming administrations probably will be directed by highly educated Africans. They will have well-developed technical and managerial skills and yet be deeply rooted in African life. These potential leaders are professionally oriented people who show relatively little interest in ideology or in political careers per se. [portion marking not declassified]
[Page 166]Under this second generation leadership, policy is likely to be increasingly shaped by a permanent civil service dedicated to solving the practical problems of nation-building, economic development, and regional cooperation. Although a strong presidential figure and a party apparatus will continue to mobilize the population in support of political goals, the dominance of party and president seems likely to diminish. [portion marking not declassified]
These countries are branching out from residual dependence on their former colonial rulers and turning more frequently to international organizations to meet development needs that are looming larger in their policy planning. They also are moving toward more formal inter-African cooperation with a variety of regional organizations that cross the old English- and French-speaking lines. [portion marking not declassified]
Collectively these seven countries occupy the part of Sub-Saharan Africa that is geographically closest to the United States and Western Europe. They are generally pro-Western and have relatively open political systems. Although all of them are classified as less developed countries, their economies function relatively well, and several have considerable undeveloped resources. Although a severe economic setback could upset their stability, their political systems seem securely enough rooted to survive in normal conditions. Because they have been relatively friendly and trouble free, these countries have only infrequently come to the attention of US policymakers. For that reason, the new generation coming to prominence is not well known in the United States, and there is some risk that this unfamiliarity could cause problems in future US dealings with them. [portion marking not declassified]
[Omitted here are a map and the body of the paper.]
- Source: Carter Library, Donated Material, Mondale Papers, Box 35, Vice President’s Visit to West Africa [7/17/80–7/23/80] Background, Stan Turner’s Background Reading. Secret. Drafted by [name not declassified]; coordinated with the Directorate of Operations, the National Intelligence Officer for Africa, and the Offices of Strategic Research and Central Reference.↩
- See Documents 55 and 56.↩
- See Document 47.↩