312. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
Soviet-Afghan Incursions Into Pakistan
([classification marking not declassified])
Summary
Moscow is able to launch small-scale air and ground incursions into Pakistan at any time, but this does not appear to be Soviet policy at present. Since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late December, two ground incursions and 14 air incursions have been confirmed, only one of which appeared to be deliberate. Moreover, high-level Soviet authorities have expressed concern about some of the confirmed incidents and as late as mid-May were investigating them. In fact, the Soviet presence appears to have reduced the number of air and ground incursions into Pakistan to below the number allegedly made by Afghan forces before the invasion. ([classification marking, codeword, and handling restriction not declassified])
Pakistani officials, however, believe that at least some of the incidents were staged by the Soviets to put pressure on Islamabad. On 3 [Page 842] March, they made strong diplomatic and public protests following an air violation in which a Soviet aircraft apparently penetrated some 20 to 40 kilometers into Pakistan. Subsequently, in mid-May, Pakistani personnel reportedly fired on intruding aircraft and on Soviet-Afghan forces in confirmed ground incursions. Pakistan has steadily but discreetly increased its military readiness opposite Afghanistan in hopes of deterring more serious Soviet and Afghan incursions. ([classification marking and handling restriction not declassified])
The Soviets probably will increase their efforts to seal the Pakistani border on the Afghan side rather than alter their policy of restraint. If this fails, the Soviets may authorize a campaign of sustained small-scale air penetrations or border incursions to force Pakistan to stop supporting the insurgents. ([classification marking and handling restriction not declassified])
Pakistani authorities expect a Soviet-Afghan ground incursion; a few believe it might occur as early as this fall. Pakistan’s efforts to reinforce the Afghan border will probably continue but may be complicated by a shortage of military equipment and by substantial high-level Army resistance to redeployments that would weaken Pakistani defenses on the Indian border. ([classification marking and handling restriction not declassified])
[Omitted here is the body of the memorandum.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, Office of Support Services, Job 82T00150R: Production Case Files, Box 2, Soviet-Afghan Air and Ground Incursions Into Pakistan. Top Secret; [codeword and handling restriction not declassified]. A typed statement on the first page reads in part: “This memorandum was prepared by [less than 1 line not declassified] of the NFAC Southwest Asia Analytic Center, Office of Political Analysis. It was coordinated with the Directorate for Operations, the Office of Strategic Research, and the National Intelligence Officers for the USSR, and the Near East and South Asia. Information available as of 29 August 1980 was used in its preparation.”↩