24. Interagency Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
Afghanistan: Orientation and Policies of the Taraki Government
[Omitted here are the cover page, title page, and a map.]
PRINCIPAL JUDGMENTS
The government of President Taraki that came to power in April 1978 is much more closely oriented toward the USSR than have been previous regimes in Afghanistan. The new government will attempt to preserve Afghanistan’s basic independence from Moscow, but it is not clear that it will be able to control the growth of Soviet influence in the country.
We have no evidence that the USSR was directly involved in the coup that brought the new government to power, but Moscow has strengthened significantly its historically strong position in Afghanistan. The Soviets’ near-term aim is to solidify the new government’s control of the country and the expanded Soviet presence in Afghanistan—both steps to ensure against any backsliding in the bilateral relationship. Over the longer term the Soviets will seek to guide the new regime in the implementation of domestic and foreign policies compatible with those of the USSR.
President Taraki’s strength derives from his control of the Marxist-oriented Peoples’ Democratic Party and the support of critically placed leftist Army officers. The new government, like its predecessors, has no widespread popular support, however, and government control is [Page 56] very limited in parts of the country. The new regime faces rebellion from some Pathan tribes and strong opposition from Islamic conservatives.
The survival of the Taraki government will depend almost entirely on the military, and its loyalties are uncertain. One or more attempted countercoups are probable, but it is not clear that any will have organized the degree of military support necessary for success. The Soviets’ expanded presence in Afghanistan and the establishment in Kabul by the Soviets of a secure communications facility will provide the USSR with an increased capability to intervene militarily on short notice if it should decide to do so in the future to protect a pro-Soviet government in Kabul.2 We believe, however, that the USSR will seek to avoid sending its own troops to Afghanistan.
The domestic policies announced by the new regime, if implemented, would increase substantially the role of government throughout the society, but they would not turn Afghanistan into a Soviet-style state. Priorities include the redistribution of land and water rights, nationalization of industry, and basic reforms in education and health services.
Afghanistan’s relations with its anti-Communist neighbors, Pakistan and Iran, will deteriorate under the Taraki government, but in the near term probably not to the point of armed conflict. The Afghans and Soviets will exercise restraint with these states to avoid jeopardizing the security of the Taraki regime; the Iranians and Pakistanis for the time being will seek continued correct relations in the hope of limiting the growth of Soviet influence in the area. Iran and Pakistan will remain prepared to provide covert assistance to dissident elements in Afghanistan, however, if they see a reasonable chance to undermine the Taraki government or in response to any future Afghan involvement in Iran’s or Pakistan’s own tribal problems.
US-Afghan relations are likely to remain correct but cool for the foreseeable future. The Afghans will want to preserve some tie to Washington as an appearance of balance in their relations with the USSR, but Soviet influence and the certainty that US assistance will [Page 57] remain modest compared with that of the USSR will preclude a closer relationship.
[Omitted here are the Discussion section and an Annex.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, NIC Files, Job 80R00779A, Box 25, NI IIM 78–10015, July 1978. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. A typed note on the memorandum reads: “Note: This memorandum was drafted by [less than 1 line not declassified] of CIA’s National Foreign Assessment Center. It has been coordinated by working level representatives of the National Foreign Inelligence Board.”↩
- Unconfirmed CIA reports led to this assessment. On June 7, the CIA passed along source reporting that “the 160 Soviet military advisors who arrived in Afghanistan in mid-May 1978 have been deployed to Afghan military units throughout the country.” The report further noted that “the Soviet advisors have considerable authority; no Afghan commander, department head, or staff officer will take any important action without first consulting with his assigned Soviet advisor.” (Department of Defense, Afghan War Collection, Box 7, USSR in Afghanistan (1978)) Another field report, June 10, elaborated: “the total number of Soviet officers now in Afghanistan is approximately 320.” Further, “of the approximately 65 general officers serving in the Afghan military before the 27 April 1978 coup, only 9 are still actively serving,” a development that the source surmised would lead to “increasing dependence on Soviet advisors for military expertise.” (Ibid.)↩