Office of the Historian

138. Intelligence Information Cable Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1

[cable number not declassified]
Washington, January 3, 1980, 1847Z

COUNTRY

  • USSR

SUBJECT

  • Soviet Intentions in Afghanistan [less than 1 line not declassified]

SOURCE

  • [5½ lines not declassified]

1. [2 lines not declassified] discussed the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. During the conversation he referred vaguely to the number of Soviet divisions involved, but when pressed on the number, [less than 1 line not declassified] stated that the exact number of troops is not now important because the Soviets will use whatever force is necessary to crush the resistance and establish complete control. According to [less than 1 line not declassified] the Soviet forces will then withdraw. (Source comment: [less than 1 line not declassified] gave the impression that this will be done quickly, and will not involve protracted military involvement.)

2. [less than 1 line not declassified] wished to discuss the possible political and economic losses to the Soviet Union as a result of the invasion. He responded to comments on possible economic reprisals by saying the USSR is not concerned about the possibility of trade sanctions nor of a grain embargo. He stated that there are people in the Soviet Union who feel a return to the Cold War is better for the Soviet Union in the long run and Western economic pressures will strengthen that group. He said that some people in the USSR feel détente was a mistake and the invasion was a decisive way to end détente. He pointed to the failure of the efforts to halt the arms race, which had led to more defense spending instead of less. He noted that the U.S. had refused to work with the Soviets on any level and that the U.S. had boxed in the Soviets. (Source comment: [less than 1 line not declassified] never stated which people felt boxed in, nor which people wished to end détente.)

[Page 399]

3. He said there are some people in the USSR who wish to act the role of a super power, which means to be “unpunishable”. According to [less than 1 line not declassified] the Afganistan invasion is allowing that group in the Soviet leadership to prove to the world that the Soviet Union is now truly a super power as the West is powerless to interfere.

4. [less than 1 line not declassified] stated he hoped the U.S. would recognize the new government and work with it, as the new government would bring stability to the region.

5. File [less than 1 line not declassified].

  1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Cables File, Box 2, Afghanistan: 1/3/80. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. Printed from a copy received in the White House Situation Room.↩