303. Action Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs (Saunders) to the Deputy Secretary of State (Christopher)1
SUBJECT
- Contingency Planning Should the Shah Die
ISSUE FOR DECISION
—How to reply to Atherton’s request for guidance should the Shah die.2
ESSENTIAL FACTORS
Should the Shah die within the next few days, we will have to deal with a variety of political decisions regarding the ceremonies that may be held in Egypt. As yet, we do not know what Sadat plans. We believe it would be desirable to convey our concerns to Sadat’s staff quickly [Page 830] before his plans are too far advanced. A suggested cable replying to Cairo 14368 is attached for your approval.3
We believe we should make a distinction between participation of an official nature that could have adverse consequences in Tehran and observances of a more personal nature that could be sustained without aggravating the Iranian crisis. Our decisions now appear to include the following:
—whether to authorize Roy Atherton to attend an official funeral;
—whether to send an official emissary or delegation;
—whether to convey condolences to the Empress;
—whether and how to observe official mourning ceremonies;
—how to handle a request by the Empress to come to the United States; and
—advice to private Americans regarding funeral attendance.
On the first two points, i.e., an official delegation or attendance by Roy Atherton at an official funeral, we would be inclined to recommend against those observances. We expect that other countries would be similarly hesitant, although we might be prepared to follow what the Diplomatic Corps will do. As a first step, we should ask Roy to consult promptly with other members of the Diplomatic Corps with a view to having the Corps take a unified position, if possible, and to convey it quietly to the Egyptian authorities with a view to urging the Egyptians toward a relatively private ceremony.
We would not suggest that a Presidential emissary be sent to any funeral. If the President wished to acknowledge the event in some personal fashion, it is possible that a private citizen friendly to the President could be asked to attend on a purely personal basis.
We would see no problem in a personal message from the President and other officials who wish to express condolences to the Empress. Most Iranians hold no special animus against her, and they would understand sympathy being expressed to a widow. Many Iranians would be concerned, however, if the Pahlavis continued to seem a political threat, and we will continue to hear demands for a return of the Shah’s money. In these circumstances, a brief, personal message of sympathy for the Empress should be tolerable in Iran. We could acknowledge to the press that such condolences had been conveyed.
[Page 831]If an official mourning period is declared, we think it would be preferable for our Embassy to follow the practice adopted by the EC–Nine and other significant missions in Cairo.
If the Empress expresses an interest in coming to the United States, we should reassure her that she is welcome. Depending on the circumstances—i.e., statements coming out of Tehran—we might wish to suggest that she defer her trip briefly until a more propitious time. We believe she would understand our concerns, and it is improbable that she will request permission to come here in the near future.
Finally, should private Americans seek our advice on travel to the funeral, we should take a neutral position, neither recommending for or against, but point to the delicacy of the hostage crisis as an obvious constraint on public activities.
RECOMMENDATION
That you approve the suggested cable attached.4
- Source: Department of State, Records of David D. Newsom, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Subject Files, 1978–1981, Lot 81D154, Briefing Book: The Shah Memos. Secret; Nodis. Sent through Newsom. Drafted by Precht.↩
- As reported in telegram 14368 from Cairo, June 29, the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Kamal Hassan Ali told Atherton that the Shah, who had contracted pneumonia, was failing fast. He also told Atherton that no final decision had been made regarding the funeral or mourning period. Atherton asked for instructions “very quickly” about participation in any funeral ceremony, extension of U.S. condolences to the Empress, Embassy observance of any period of mourning, and advance notice of any prominent U.S. citizens who might attend. (Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Middle East File, Box 36, Subject File, Iran Cables & Press 6/80)↩
- Attached but not printed. The draft instructed that Atherton not attend any funeral, that no official delegation would attend, that participation of an official nature in commemorations should be avoided, and that he should consult with EC–9 representatives in Cairo and with Sadat, and welcome the Empress to the United States after checking on the timing. For the final version of the telegram, sent as 175165 to Cairo, July 3, see Document 308.↩
- There is no indication on the memorandum that the recommendation was either approved or disapproved.↩