Attached at Tab A is an information memorandum to you from Secretary
Rogers on the current
situation in Nigeria. The salient points in the report are:
1. Nigerian recovery from the ravages of the civil war is continuing
rather well.
2. International relief ($40 million from us, $45 million from everybody
else) has succeeded in averting mass starvation.
3. Our relief help continues for the time being, but Nigerian dependence
on outside help is diminishing rapidly.
4. General Gowon has followed a
generous policy of reconciliation with the Ibos.
5. The future economic prospects for Nigeria are promising.
6. Our relations with Nigeria have pretty much recovered, although there
is still lingering resentment over our role during the civil war.
Tab A
Memorandum From Secretary of State Rogers to President
Nixon
Washington, August 14, 1970
Subject:
- Nigeria Seven Months After the War The Crisis Receding
Seven months have gone by since the end of the Nigerian civil war. It
has been a period of considerable recovery and return to peaceful
pursuits. The war-affected areas are becoming economically more
productive as the postwar reconstruction effort takes effect. The
relief provided since the war (approximately $40 million from the
United States and $45 million estimated from other nations) has
headed off starvation. In the last three months the mass feeding
program has ended; food is still being provided to those of greatest
need in sickbays and hospitals. We continue to support the relief
program with food shipments, but we expect that Nigerian dependence
on outside help for feeding will diminish rapidly.
General Gowon has been able
to maintain a policy of generous reconciliation toward the Ibos.
Reintegration at the federal level is underway, particularly in the
police force, the postal and telegraph services, and the federal
army, which has absorbed 1,500 prodigal enlisted men despite the
problem of demobilizing a wartime force of over 200,000. Strains
remain; states contiguous to the former enclave have been loathe to
permit the once dominant Ibosʼ return. In other areas of the
country, however, Ibos are slowly regaining their former positions;
property and rents held in escrow during the war are being handed
back to Ibo owners.
The Economy
Although Nigeria came out of the war with its basic potential for
long run economic growth intact, there were inevitable internal
strains: heavy domestic borrowing,
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delayed foreign exchange, remissions,
inflation, and large-scale unemployment. Some food products doubled
in price towards the end of the war and rents since then have
increased. Smuggling of export crops in exchange for banned luxury
goods has been widespread.
Central and state governments plan increased outlays for social
services. Their budgets reflect the end of war-time expenditures and
the expectation of increased revenue from oil (estimated at $280
million this year). Nigeria is now the worldʼs tenth largest
producer and seventh largest exporter of oil. Production reached 1
million barrels a day in April, is expected to average 1.3 million
in 1971, and could exceed 4 million before 1980. Nigeria remains the
worldʼs largest exporter of peanuts, the second largest exporter of
cocoa, and a significant exporter of palm produce, rubber, timber
products, and tin. Its economy—bolstered by the burgeoning petroleum
industry—could become the fastest growing and most powerful in Black
Africa.
In the war-affected area in the east, economic activity is also
resuming, although at a slower pace. Government services have
resumed. Local industries and banks are re-opening. The outlook for
the fall harvest seems promising. Government agricultural marketing
boards and local traders are back in business. These activities,
plus the Federal Governmentʼs payments of $56.00 to every depositor
of Biafran currency, are gradually easing the economy of the eastern
states away from barter and back to a market economy. The Federal
Government has announced a plan to spend $28 million on a program in
the East-Central State for reconstruction of war damage and to
further the stateʼs economic recovery.
Relations with the United States
Our relations with Nigeria are more cordial now than during and just
after the war. Although there is lingering resentment over our
neutrality during the secession and our aggressive role in dealing
with the relief problem, the legacy of the past is diminishing as
our ties with Nigeriaʼs new leadership are enhanced. In addition to
our ongoing AID program, we have
begun negotiations on a $15 million reconstruction loan which will
underline our support during the, present transitional period. We
hope that Congressional action will permit us to respond to a
Nigerian request for military training and mount a modest military
assistance program. The Nigerians place great importance on this
prospect.
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Whatever steps Nigeria begins to take toward returning to civilian
rule, General Gowon and the
group which directed the war are likely to continue their
responsibilities for the next few years. They are looking to the
West but seek demonstration of our interest and renewed support.
