226. Memorandum From Henry Owen of the National Security Council Staff to President Carter1
SUBJECT
- 1979 and 1980 Import Ceilings
I strongly support the recommendations that you announce a lower US import level for 1979 and 1980 than we pledged at Tokyo.
The question I get from newspapermen, businessmen, and others to whom I report about the Summit is why we chose an 8.5 million import target for 1979 and 1980, since it is more than we are likely to import in either year. (I do not get this question about an 8.5 million goal for 1985.)
Your speech’s impact in this country and abroad would be enhanced by announcing a lower ceiling.2 The dollar would be strengthened. It would be one of the few parts of the speech that has not been foreshadowed in the press.
This action would be consistent with your phone statement to Giscard yesterday3 that you will announce more stringent import measures than you agreed at Tokyo.
This action would also give us a basis for urging other countries to exceed their Tokyo pledges. This effect would be the more welcome since CIA estimates that the total of the Summit imports pledged at To[Page 719]kyo for 1982 and later years could easily exceed oil imports available to the Summit countries in those years.
This move would also be pleasing to the Saudis. It would show that we are willing to go that extra mile in response to their recent production decision.4 The chances of their extending that decision beyond the initial six months would thus be increased.
- Source: Carter Library, Staff Office Files, Domestic Policy Staff, Box 324, Eizenstat, World Crude Oil Market. No classification marking. Sent for information. Attached to the memorandum is a July 12 note from Owen to Eizenstat that reads: “Curt Hessler tells me you’re considering this. If you recommend it to the President, I’d be grateful if you’d let him know I strongly agree with you—either by sending him the attached or by incorporating my views in your memo.”↩
- Carter delivered his speech on “Energy and National Goals” to the nation on July 15, and the next day spoke in Kansas City, Missouri, to discuss the “energy problem” and his program to deal with it. For the text of both addresses, see Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Jimmy Carter, 1979, pp. 1235–1247. On July 16, the Department of State sent a telegram to all diplomatic posts with guidance to use in orally conveying the “most salient points” of the speech, which was well received internationally, and the energy announcements of the following day. The telegram reads in part: “The major theme is that the U.S. requires an unparalleled peacetime investment of money, natural resources, and application of technology to achieve two goals: first, never again to import more oil than it did in 1977. We will keep imports at or below these levels through conservation and use of domestic energy resources. Second, by 1990, the United States must cut the amount of oil it now imports in half.” (Telegram 183760 to all diplomatic posts, July 16; National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy Files, D790321–0125)↩
- Not found. Carter talked to Giscard on the telephone from 5:17 to 5:28 p.m. (Carter Library, Staff Office Files, President’s Daily Diary)↩
- See Document 223. In an August 1 letter to Carter, King Khalid wrote that Carter’s “historic program for solving the energy problem” set an example to be followed by the rest of the world regarding the policy of energy production and consumption. He added: “My government has exerted its utmost efforts to lessen the effects of the crisis and to reduce its undesirable results, and it has achieved a far-reaching success in that direction.” (Telegram 5676 from Jidda, August 2; National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy Files, P850027–2424)↩