160. Notes of Meeting1


3 ml bbs day North Sea

6 North Africa

8 Iran


40 m bbs/day from Arab
45 non-Arab
85 Total demand

Kuwait knows its reserves and wants them to last.

Lower Arab states could get to 8 [m bbs/day]

Iraq, } most interesting to US.
Saudi Arabia

Saudi is where the world’s oil reserves are

concentrated (145 bil–300 bil)

Iraq reserves are also underrated (36 bil)

& may range to 2/5 of Saudi reserves

We will need Saudi to produce 25 mil/day.

They can, but will they want to.

The OPEC countries (particularly Arab) don’t need the money they are getting now.

  • —They will have tremendous capital accumulation by 1980
  • —They want to invest in oil related business

By 1980 there will not be significant spare oil capacity in the world.

  • —Arabs may be able to use oil as a political weapon

Other sources of energy

  • —Nuclear energy projections have been reduced by 40%
  • —We shouldn’t expect much help

If we all compete for the available oil, the price can go much higher than otherwise

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We need to develop Saudi-Iranian cooperation in the Gulf to get the increased oil we need.

We haven’t developed a policy framework for Gulf to try actively to bring together the major parties

King Faisal is afraid of the power his oil represents and is afraid of being invaded—by Iran, Israel, or both.


  • Consortium meet on 12 Feb.
  • → They present new compromise to Shah
  • → We (at some point) urge Shah to compromise

Jim Akins

Saunders Jacob Bennett (Commerce)

Jim Critchfield2

Hal met with Akins

Set up meeting for Tuesday3 10 a.m.

  1. Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Kissinger Office Files, Box 137, Country Files, Middle East, Iran–Oil, 5 Feb 1973–7 Sep 1974. No classification marking. The original is handwritten notes taken by Scowcroft of a February 6 meeting on oil. Additional information on this meeting is in Document 161. No other record of the meeting was found.
  2. Partial list of attendees.
  3. February 12.