Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XX, Southeast Asia, 1969–1972

10. National Security Study Memorandum 51¹

Washington, April 26, 1969.

TO

• The Secretary of State
• The Secretary of Defense
• The Director of Central Intelligence
• The Director of the Bureau of the Budget
• Administrator of the Agency for International Development

SUBJECT

• Program Analysis of Thailand

The President has directed that a program analysis of Thailand be undertaken in accordance with the procedures described in NSDM 4.²

If appropriate, two or three alternative outcomes to the Vietnam conflict should be assumed.

The study will:

1. Analyze U.S. interests and objectives in Thailand and their implications for future U.S.-Thai relations, giving due consideration to the historical background as it relates to Thai interests and U.S.-Thai relations.

2. In the light of alternative views of U.S. interests and objectives in Thailand, analyze those policy issues which will have a bearing on the size, mix and composition of U.S. programs to support these objectives over the next five years.

3. Analyze the program and budget implications of the key policy options.

4. Develop alternative statements of U.S. objectives, policy options and their program implications for consideration by the National Security Council.

The study should include an analysis of the following U.S. programs and possible trade offs among them:

1. Military assistance and its role in the development of Thai security forces.

2. The AID programs and their role in helping the Thai control the insurgent threat and in developing Thailand’s economy.

3. U.S. forces and bases in Thailand in the light of possible post-Vietnam war contingencies in Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand.

4. CONUS-based and Theatre-based U.S. forces required as a reserve for Thai contingencies.

5. U.S. research activities and their contribution to U.S. and Thai program effectiveness.

6. The programs of the U.S. Information Agency, the Peace Corps, and the Central Intelligence Agency in Thailand.

Field research activities to obtain information needed for the analysis shall be undertaken as required.

The study will be performed by an Ad Hoc group chaired by the NSC Assistant for Programs; the Country Director for Thailand will be the Vice Chairman of the Ad Hoc group. The Chairman will consult periodically with the East Asia Interdepartmental Group. The Ad Hoc group will comprise members from the addressee agencies who shall be selected after consultation with the agencies and designated by the undersigned in a separate memorandum.

To assist the Ad Hoc group in its study, the Secretary of Defense should provide an analysis of possible Southeast Asia contingencies, including the defense of Thailand, and their implications for required U.S. forces and bases. This analysis will incorporate the results of analyses of the effectiveness of past operations conducted from Thailand and reflect agency views on the major outstanding issues. This study will be forwarded to the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs by July 1, 1969.

The Department of Defense will provide administrative support for the Ad Hoc group. The study should be forwarded to the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs by October 1, 1969. Subsequently, the study will be referred to the NSC IG/EA for comment prior to consideration by the Review Group.

Henry A. Kissinger

1. Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 365, Subject Files, National Security Study Memoranda, Nos. 43–103. Secret. A copy was sent to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
2. NSDM 4, January 20, authorized program analysis studies for certain countries. (Ibid., NSC Institutional Files (H-Files), Box H–208, NSDM Files, NSDMs 1–50)