The thrust of this memo tallies closely with Embassy Moscow’s assessment
that the Soviets are making considerable efforts to discourage
emigration applications for Israel, including a press campaign
highlighting bad living conditions there. As you recall, the Soviets in
March gave us an “information sheet” stating that 95 percent of
applications [Page 894] for emigration
are approved,2 and explaining that the
decline in emigration since the October War is linked to unsettled
conditions in the Middle East and to poor living conditions in Israel,
and to a consequent decline in applications.
Attachment
Briefing Memorandum From the Director of the
Bureau of Intelligence and Research (Hyland) to Secretary of State
Kissinger
4
Decline in Soviet Jewish Emigration
Soviet Jewish emigration declined 26 percent in the first four months
of this year compared to last year. The table below compares
emigration for the first four months of this year and last year:
|
Month
|
1973
|
1974
|
Percent Decline
|
| January |
2,700 |
2,400 |
11 |
| February |
2,400 |
1,600 |
33 |
| March |
2,600 |
2,000 |
28 |
| April |
2,700 |
1,700 |
37 |
| Total |
10,400 |
7,700 |
26 |
| Annual Total |
34,800 |
25,800 (projection) |
— |
It appears the Soviets are deliberately cutting back the flow of
emigrants by a higher refusal rate and tougher application
procedures:
—applicants must now obtain clearance from the local police before
approaching the exit visa office.
—required employer’s references must date back at least six months,
thereby discouraging Jews from quitting before applying to emigrate,
since more than four months’ unemployment can lead to prosecution
for “parasitism.”
[Page 895]
The Kremlin claims the decline in emigration is due to a drop in
applications resulting from disillusionment with conditions in
Israel, and is currently conducting a propaganda campaign
highlighting difficulties of life there. But this is probably only a
marginal factor at the moment. The Israeli Embassy in Washington
says more than 4,500 invitations to emigrate are being mailed to
Soviet Jews every month, and Jewish activists in Moscow say the
desire to emigrate is as strong as ever.
The current decline may represent an attempt to pressure the US
Congress on the Soviet-American trade issue by linking continued opposition to MFN and credits with a reduction
in emigration. If so, the message would be that a Congressional
compromise on the issue might bring the emigration back up
again.
The Soviets have manipulated emigration rates before, boosting them
in 1972 during the US elections and again in 1973 during House
debate on Soviet-American trade and with the FRG prior to the last election. Moscow
Jews are speculating that barriers to emigration may be lowered in
connection with the Summit, but there is no hard evidence to this
effect.
