Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XII, Soviet Union, January 1969–October 1970

144. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon¹

Washington, March 13, 1970.

SUBJECT

• Trouble in the Soviet Leadership

In the last week we have received several diverse reports that could point to trouble within the top Soviet leadership.²

• —[1 paragraph (4 lines of source text) not declassified]
• —Gus Hall, the American Communist leader, received information recently (reported by the FBI) that while Brezhnev had emerged as “head man” in recent months, there was maneuvering in the Kremlin leadership and that there would be a purge of “scapegoats” for failures in the economy.
• —A Reuters report from Vienna, quoting sources in Yugoslavia and Prague, claims that Brezhnev and Kosygin have been attacked by other party leaders for major failures, and that these accusations were in the form of signed document; the challengers are supposed to be Shelepin, Maxurov and Suslov.
• —[1½ lines of source text not declassified] suggested considerable nervousness on the part of the Deputy Premier Polyansky over his public “image.”

While the Reuters report seems dramatic and too detailed for plausibility, recent signs taken together seem to point to increasing problems within the leadership. As noted in an earlier memorandum to you, the heart of the problem seems to be the dissatisfaction over economic matters.

An “honorable” retirement for Kosygin might be a logical way to break a deadlock at the top. At the same time, there have been recurring reports of his failing health. Recently, a Soviet guide at the Soviet photographic exhibit here was overheard to say that Kosygin was due for an operation.

If there is major trouble of the kind reported by Reuters, however, this would be a different matter and could have more far-reaching policy implications. Unfortunately, there is never any sure way to confirm these events, until after they have already taken place, and we are faced with the results.

This bears watching, of course, and I will forward any reports that seem plausible, especially if there seems to be a relation to major policy issues.

1. Source: Library of Congress, Manuscript Division, Kissinger Papers, Box SCI 17, Memos to the President, January–April 1970. Top Secret; Codeword. Sent for information. A notation on the memorandum indicates it was returned on March 17.
2. On March 11, Sonnenfeldt forwarded a letter to Kissinger that alluded to reports carried by the Reuters news service, to the effect that Kosygin may retire and a major fight among the Kremlin leaders may ensue. Sonnenfeldt added, “the Kremlinologists at CIA and State are taking it all with a grain of salt so far. Stories of this kind are inherently hard to assess. However, there is probably enough meat here to warrant a brief report to the president, as a follow-up to the earlier more extensive memo of last month.” (Ibid.)