316. Memorandum From Alfred Jenkins of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow)1
SUBJECT
- China Mainland Situation
Since the Wuhan episode of last summer, the conservatives in general have had their way more—often with Army collusion or acquiescence. This has concerned the Maoists, and Mao on June 2 issued one of his infrequent delphic “instructions” to the effect that the masses were to be given their rein at all costs. This has resulted, not unexpectedly, in a rise in fighting throughout June. The level has not yet reached that of last summer, but it is well on the way, and we have again a situation which could deteriorate fairly rapidly.
Perhaps the chief difference between last summer and now is that Cultural Revolution dislocations have begun to bring suffering to larger and larger numbers of citizens. Illegal immigrants into Hong Kong give most frequently as reasons for fleeing, unemployment and food shortages. Lack of raw materials, labor troubles and not infrequently sabotage have reduced production in many enterprises to the point where salaries cannot be met. We have reports of both grave robberies (especially in rur-al areas, valuables are still often buried with the dead) and the sale of children—both typical phenomena in times of crisis in China. (One woman spoke of being offered the equivalent of about $45.00 for her son, but she was holding out for more.) Vehicles, even public buses, are being stolen for use in factional fighting, and bicycles are at such a premium in some places where public transportation has ceased to function, that they are being wrested out from under the riders.
Serious floods are reported from six provinces in Southeast China. The early rice crop in Kwangtung may be off as much as 10–15%, and planting of late rice will be delayed.
All three North-South rail lines have had interruptions for considerable periods in June from floods, landslides and fighting around the stations. (We are not sure whether military-manned priority trains are getting through, where “acts of God” are not the cause of the interruptions.) Many letters mention that the writer is stranded away from home or work because of lack of transportation.
[Page 688]No one knows what all this will ultimately mean, of course. However, one is now tempted to alter the British witticism of last fall to the effect “the situation is excellent, but not hopeless.” Things must be beginning to look pretty hopeless to the average Chinese. If the regime could bring itself to give the conservatives their way, things could quiet down, but there are no signs that the regime will do that. Almost anything could happen in coming months, but the best bet still is that a portion of the military will get fed up and take matters into their own hands. If the Maoists’ opposition should begin to jell, we should see radio stations taken over. So far, this has happened in only a couple of places very temporarily some months ago. It was premature.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, China, Vol. XIII. Secret. A copy was sent to Jorden. Rostow sent the memorandum, along with some intelligence reports, to the President with a covering memorandum of the same date, noting that the disarray in China might help explain “the Soviet willingness to proceed with arms control measures with the U.S. and to interject itself so deeply in the Vietnam affair.” (Ibid.)↩