265. Memorandum From the President’s Special Assistant (Rostow) to President Johnson1
SUBJECT
- China Mainland Situation
The political situation throughout the Chinese mainland today is complex and uncertain.
While there is no good evidence that any area is not reasonably well controlled by the central government, Peking press and radio have praised the leadership of only four provinces (Heilungkiang, Shansi, Shantung and Kweichow) and two municipalities (Shanghai and Peking). Peking is pointedly silent about the remaining 22 provinces. Since May 1, Red Guards have reported disorder in five provinces (Szechwan, Tibet, Kansu, Sinkiang and Honan). As a minimum, this suggests that Peking leaders are in serious conflict over the selection of leaders there.
Lurid reports of violence in the provinces, circulated by Red Guards and picked up by the world press, are largely, though by no means entirely, discounted by the intelligence community. Fairly widespread disorder has occurred, but it is suspected that exaggerated reports are issued in order to discredit local officials slated for purge. Communications and transportation services, including those involving the Army, [Page 571] have functioned normally since February, without anomalies attributable to unrest.
The Army has generally responded to central orders since late January, although it has tended to act more in the interest of stability than in support of the Maoists as such.
Mao’s “extensive democracy” (turning to the masses for support) has been fairly effective as a weapon of destruction. However, it is at a loss when the time comes to construct a meaningful alternative to the destroyed structure. Unity fostered by targeting conservative “demons” then dissolves into bickering among the leftists over the share of the spoils. Peking has aptly termed this phenomenon “unprincipled ‘civil wars.’” The regime has had to resort to increased reliance on the Army and renewed policy emphasis on law and order—at the expense of Mao’s revolutionary objectives. The revolution is in a highly nervous stalemate.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, China, Vol. IX. Secret. A handwritten “L” on the source text indicates that it was seen by the President.↩