Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXVIII, Laos

321. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared by the Directorate of Intelligence of the Central Intelligence Agency¹

S–2543

Washington, December 1967.

Comments on Ambassador Sullivan’s Cable on Air Operation in Laos, November 1967

Summary

1. In a cable of 27 November 1967 commenting on the air war in Laos, Ambassador Sullivan stated that 1) the total of trucks destroyed in Laos in November would in all probability exceed 600, 2) an overwhelming proportion of the truck “kills” had been on Routes 911 and 912 and as a result practically none of the North Vietnamese dry season cargo is reaching as far south as Route 9, and 3) “if this rate of success continues, the entire inventory of trucks which the North Vietnamese hold for the Ho Chi Minh Trail activity will be wiped out before the end of this calendar year.”²

2. During November, Seventh Air Force pilots reported 531 trucks destroyed and 198 damaged, the highest monthly rate of destruction reported in Laos during the past two years (see Table 1). Ninety-eight percent of the trucks reported destroyed in Laos during November and 95 percent of those reported damaged were found in the Panhandle (Steel Tiger) Area of Laos. The number of trucks reported destroyed in Laos in November has been exceeded in North Vietnam only during the months of July and August 1967 when 603 and 743 respectively were reported destroyed (see Table 2).

3. The record level of reported destruction of trucks in November results from a combination of factors; (1) exceedingly good weather in Laos and the highest number of sorties over Laos since April, (2) the first full month of the dry season and an increase in traffic densities, and (3) possibly poor convoy discipline resulting from the use of inexperienced truck drivers. We know of no change in US tactics or weapons systems that would account for the increased effectiveness of US air attacks.

4. We agree with Ambassador Sullivan that air operations in Laos were especially effective in November. Even allowing for the inflation known to exist in pilot reporting, a continuation of such heavy losses would seriously erode the North Vietnamese truck inventory in Laos and North Vietnam unless imports from the Communist countries increased substantially. It is to be noted, however, that reported truck losses in North Vietnam in November were light, only 50 destroyed and 66 damaged.

5. We disagree with Ambassador Sullivan’s claim that practically no traffic is reaching as far south as Route 9. While road watch teams report little traffic south of Route 9, recent aerial reconnaissance covering the period 4–17 November shows that at least 15 percent of the trucks sighted in the Panhandle were operating on Route 9 or south of Route 9. Finally, there are anomalies in the data for November which cannot yet be explained. In November relatively more trucks were destroyed than damaged than in any previous period. In addition, only 6 sorties were required per truck destroyed or damaged compared to 35 sorties per truck destroyed and damaged in November 1966, when about the same number of sorties were flown but only 115 trucks were destroyed.

6. We believe that the November experience is heartening but it is still too early to conclude that a major turning point has been reached in the US air interdiction campaign in Southeast Asia. Based on past experience there is considerable doubt that the November performance in Laos can be sustained.

[Here follow 3–1/3 pages of “comments,” two tables, and a map of Laos.]

1. Source: Washington National Records Center, RG 330, OSD/Admin Files: FRC 72 A 2468, Laos (Laos 385.1), 1967. A note on the source text indicates that McNamara saw it on December 4.
2. See footnote 2, Document 319.