371. Memorandum From Howard Wriggins of the National Security Council Staff to President Johnson1
SUBJECT
- Next PL 480 Agreements for India and Pakistan
State, Agriculture and AID recommend you approve now the next PL 480 agreements for India and Pakistan.2 Although the monsoon leaves a big question mark, we expect these agreements to carry us through January or February, leaving one more agreement to sign before India’s February elections.
The departments recommend for India 1.2 million tons of wheat and up to 800,000 tons of coarse grains; for Pakistan, 200,000 tons of wheat and 200,000 tons of corn or milo.
The wheat picture is pretty bleak. The departments have carefully reviewed Indian and Pak requests against the background of our own very tight wheat supply—4 million tons less for PL 480 than last year, a 25% drop. The painful fact is that we just will not have enough wheat to send all the two governments feel they need, even though half of our total PL 480 wheat this fiscal year is earmarked for those two countries.
We will be answering India’s request for 7.8 million tons of wheat in FY 1967 with only 5 million and Pakistan’s request for 2.2 million tons with only 830,000. But after thorough study, the departments have done the best they can by these two—and better than by most other PL 480 recipients this year.
We can offer coarse grains to help fill the gap. The departments propose 2.3 million tons in FY 1967 for India (the Indians asked only for 1.5 million) and 330,000 for the Paks (they are expecting much less, if any). However, the Indians after a major effort to increase consumption have said they couldn’t handle much more—even if we can’t make up the difference in wheat. The Paks are willing to try a small quantity for the first time, but we don’t know how that will work out.
Despite short supply, we will be able to complete our 1966 emergency program and see India through her harvest, though she will still be hard pressed to meet ration levels with the wheat we can send. The [Page 724] serious pinch could come next spring, especially if this fall’s crop is below average. That is when stocks must be built against the shortage period before next fall’s crop. So we have to hold back now to save as much wheat as possible for that potentially critical time and to make our pre-election agreement as large as possible. If you approve this agreement, we will have committed 3.6 million tons of wheat so far for FY 1967, leaving only 1.4 million tons more to send through June.
While the Indian agreement could be signed any time in September, we ought to move immediately in Pakistan. Hoarding has become a problem, and promise of new shipments should turn loose stocks already in the country. So we want to ship as much as we can now without losing flexibility next spring. Approving the departments’ recommendation would bring our FY 1967 total to 580,000 tons of wheat, leaving only 250,000 tons for the rest of the year.
I recommend you approve the departments’ recommendation. We will continue diplomatic efforts to explain fully the facts of our own wheat situation.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Pakistan, Vol. VI, Memos, 1/66–9/66. Confidential.↩
- Reference is to a joint August 22 memorandum to the President from Rusk, Freeman, and Gaud. (Ibid., NSC Histories, Indian Famine, August 1966–February 1967, Vol. III) A copy is also in National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, Central Files 1964–66, AID (US) INDIA.↩
- Johnson checked this option. On the August 24 covering memorandum from Bromley Smith to the President, which Smith used to transmit the Rusk-Freeman-Gaud memorandum and the Wriggins memorandum to the President, Johnson wrote: “We must hold onto all the wheat we can—send nothing unless we break an iron bound agreement by not sending. See me.” (Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Pakistan, Vol. VI, Memos, 1/66–9/66)↩