Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXV, South Asia

SNIE 31–1–65

Washington, October 21, 1965.

INDIA’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY

The Problem

To estimate India’s nuclear weapons policy over the next few years.

Conclusions

A.: India has the capability to develop nuclear weapons. It probably already has sufficient plutonium for a first device, and could explode it about a year after a decision to develop one. (Paras. 1–3)
B.: The proponents of a nuclear weapons program have been strengthened by the Indo-Pakistani war, but the main political result has been a strengthening of Prime Minister Shastri’s position. We believe that he does not now wish to start a program and that he is capable of making this decision stick for the time being. (Paras. 4–14)
C.: However, we do not believe that India will hold to this policy indefinitely. All things considered, we believe that within the next few years India probably will detonate a nuclear device and proceed to develop nuclear weapons. (Paras. 15–20)

[Here follows the 5-page Discussion section of the Estimate.]

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Job 79–R01012A, ODDI Registry of NIE and SNIE Files. Secret; Controlled Dissem. According to a note on the cover sheet, the estimate was prepared by the CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State and Defense, AEC, and NSA. All members of the U.S. Intelligence Board concurred in the estimate on October 21 except the representative of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, who abstained because the subject was outside his jurisdiction.↩