Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXV, South Asia

186. Memorandum Prepared in the Office of Current Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency¹

OCI No. 2316/65

Washington, September 6, 1965.

POSSIBLE SINO-PAKISTANI MILITARY ARRANGEMENT

1. A series of clandestine reports received since early 1964 indicates a possible secret Sino-Pakistani mutual defense agreement of some kind. It seems probable, however, that any such understanding would be very loose and cast in terms which provide Peiping maximum latitude in deciding when or whether it might come into force.

2. It appears from the reports that US involvement in support of Indian military operations would be a key element in any Chinese undertaking to help Pakistan. China’s behavior toward Pakistan, although very friendly, has been marked by caution in matters which involve mutual defense questions. Chinese commentary on the Rann of Kutch crisis appeared calculated to provide political backing for Pakistan while avoiding any commitment of Chinese military support. In the present Kashmir fighting, Chinese commentary has so far been largely limited to reportorial accounts of the clashes which are slanted to show that the Indians are the culpable party.²

3. We believe, nonetheless, that some secret understanding exists between Peiping and Rawalpindi. Moreover, we foresee that however loose and “uncommitted” the Chinese may have kept themselves, the understanding gives Pakistan something which Rawalpindi can consider an “ace in the hole” in the present confrontation. At minimum, this could produce a feeling of greater confidence in Rawalpindi than is warranted either by the terms of the understanding or Pakistan’s present military advantage in the Jammu area. At worst, it could make Pakistan utterly foolhardy.

4. A chronological record of the reporting on this subject is at annex.³

1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Pakistan, Vol. IV, Memos and Miscellaneous, 8/65–9/65. Secret; No Foreign Dissem/Controlled Dissem; No Dissem Abroad/Background Use Only.
2. On September 4 visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Chen Yi stated at a press conference in Karachi that China supported the “just struggle of Kashmir people against tyrannical domination of India.” He condemned Indian violations of the cease-fire line for provoking the conflict, and he noted that China supported the “just” actions of Pakistan to repel Indian armed provocation. (Unnumbered telegram from Karachi, September 6; National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, Central Files 1964–66, POL 7 CHICOM)
3. The 4-page annex is not printed.