78. Telegram From the Embassy in Iran to the Department of State1
1171. Reference: Deptel 957.2 Basic estimate security situation not significantly altered by recent assassination attempt. That attempt highlighted, however, the fact, which has long been apparent, that stability in Iran is unduly dependent on the life of one man.
We have had no further information to add to interesting psychological phenomenon reported Embtel 1136,3 that after the recent assassination attempt another such attempt is now regarded as more likely. There is no evidence to support belief that another attempt will follow soon, but somehow there is impression that cost of life insurance policy on Shah must have gone up. This phenomenon will bear watching, but cannot be developed further at this time.
There certainly are efforts under way to plug gaps in arrangements for personal security of Shah; otherwise there are no indications at present time that regime is further tightening up after the assassination attempt. It has been keeping tight control of any opposition activities all along. We continue to believe that regime is capable of dealing with any disorders that might be fomented by opposition groups. Assassination by fanatics who are willing to die in the process is another matter, but as Shah will be better protected we do not on balance see any deterioration.4
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 23–1 IRAN. Secret.↩
- Dated April 19. (Ibid.)↩
- Dated April 14. (Ibid., POL 15–1 IRAN)↩
- In telegram 1203 from Tehran, April 27, Holmes reported that the Shah had repeated to him a statement he had previously made to others, i.e., that the April 10 attempt on his life had been part of a plot inspired by pro-Communist Iranian students centered in London. (Ibid.)↩