207. National Intelligence Estimate1
NIE 23–67
Washington, March 30, 1967.
BONN’S POLICIES UNDER THE KIESINGER GOVERNMENT
The Problem
To assess the cohesiveness of the grand coalition government in West Germany and to estimate the development of West German foreign policy over the next two or three years.
[Page 507]Conclusions
- A.
- The coalition headed by Chancellor Kiesinger has gained broad public support in West Germany and will probably remain united at least until the federal election of September 1969 draws near.
- B.
- The extreme rightist National Democratic Party (NPD) is likely to make further gains in the next year, but we believe that it will remain a fairly small minority of the German electorate during the period of this estimate.
- C.
- While maintaining its defense ties with the US and NATO, the Kiesinger government will be more assertive of national interests than previous governments in Bonn. Recently emerging political differences have led to a gradual increase in German criticism of various US policies and the present dispute over the proposed non-proliferation treaty will intensify this development. Nevertheless, we believe that if the principal other nonnuclear nations sign, the Kiesinger government will feel compelled to go along.
- D.
- Kiesinger will continue his efforts to improve Franco-German relations, but the practical results will probably be limited, and the West German Government is not likely to accept French hegemony in Western Europe.
- E.
- Bonn’s present emphasis on improving relations with Eastern Europe, already successful in Rumania, will probably have some success in Hungary, Bulgaria, and—somewhat later—in Czechoslovakia. We think it unlikely that the West German initiatives will bring about any major change in Soviet policy toward Germany.
- F.
- Bonn will seek to expand contacts with East Germany, even high-level contacts which might eventually approximate de facto recognition, but will almost certainly not grant de jure recognition to the Pankow regime.
[Here follows a 6-page discussion of the factors that led to the report’s conclusions.]
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, National Intelligence Estimates. Secret; Controlled Dissem. The estimate was prepared jointly by the Central Intelligence Agency, the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State and Defense, and the National Security Agency. It was submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence and concurred in by the U.S. Intelligence Board.↩