Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume X,
National Security Policy
125. Memorandum From the Joint Chiefs of Staff
to Secretary of Defense McNamara
1
JCSM–296–66
Washington, May 5, 1966.
SUBJECT
- The Foreign Intelligence Effort of the United States
- 1.
- The Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, in response to a memorandum
for you by the Chairman, President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory
Board, dated 19 April 1966,2 subject as above, has prepared a reply and forwarded
it to the Joint Chiefs of Staff for their consideration.
- 2.
- The Joint Chiefs of Staff have reviewed the draft memorandum and
consider that it is responsive to the request.
- 3.
- The Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, consulted with the offices
of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering, the Assistant
Secretary of Defense (Administration), the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (International Security Affairs), the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Systems Analysis), the commanders of the unified and specified
commands, and the Services and considered their views.
- 4.
- The Joint Chiefs of Staff recommend that a memorandum, substantially
the same as that contained in the Appendix hereto, be forwarded to the
Chairman, President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, on a “Special
Handling—Not Releasable to Foreign Nationals” basis.
- 5.
- Without attachment, this memorandum is Unclassified.
For the Joint Chiefs of Staff:
John C. Meyer
3
Major General, USAF
Deputy Director, Joint Staff
[Page 389]
Appendix
Draft Memorandum From the Joint
Chiefs of Staff to the Chairman of the President’s
Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (Clifford)
SUBJECT
- Principal Intelligence Gaps and Deficiencies (C)
- 1.
- (C) In your memorandum of 19 April 1966, you requested my views
and comments regarding the principal gaps and deficiencies which, in
my opinion, inhibit performance within the Department of Defense of
its responsibilities and functions which significantly affect the
national security.
- 2.
- (S) In the light of the above
criterion, I have endeavored to identify and select those questions
to which intelligence is currently not able to supply a fully
satisfactory response and each of which is of such importance as to
represent either a significant area of strategic uncertainty in
force-oriented and strategic planning or a significantly inhibiting
factor in the conduct of military operations. In this process, I
have solicited the views of the major components of the Department
of Defense, including the commanders of the unified and specified
commands.
- 3.
- (TS) The following is a list of
those subject areas which represent important gaps and deficiencies
measured against the needs of the Department of Defense for
intelligence support. This list is not exhaustive but is intended
rather as a statement of those unanswered questions which, because
of their importance, currently assume an exceptional degree of
prominence within the Department of Defense. The items are not
listed in order of importance; each is significant in its relation
to major elements of the Department of Defense mission.
- a.
-
Soviet Capabilities and Intentions with
Respect to Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRV). Significant
Soviet capability to employ MIRV will affect the force requirements and
technological planning for future US ballistic missile
defenses (BMDs).
- b.
-
Soviet Capabilities and Intentions with
Respect to BMD.
There is substantial evidence that the Soviets are deploying
a BMD. The capability and
characteristics of such a system are not known to us at this
time; however, depending upon its effectiveness, such a
system could drastically affect the strategic balance and US
deterrent capability. BMD
developments against short-range (battlefield) and
medium-range ballistic weapons are also of concern.
- c.
-
Soviet Allocation of Fissionable
Material. The wide range in the estimate of nuclear
material available to the Soviets and the manner in which
this material is allocated to major categories of nuclear
weapons, such as strategic bombs, strategic missiles, and
battlefield weapons, creates uncertainties in assessment of
Soviet capabilities. Consequently, US planning must be based
on assumptions the validity of which cannot be stated with
adequate confidence.
- d.
-
Soviet and ChiCom Nuclear Weapons Development
Program. More information is needed on the scope
and direction of both Soviet and ChiCom nuclear weapons development programs.
Although we have monitored individual Soviet nuclear tests
over the past years and estimated their design parameters,
we have inadequate over-all intelligence on Soviet broad
objectives for the future. On ChiCom nuclear weapons development, we appear
able to maintain a degree of surveillance over their testing
program, but we continue to lack sufficient information on
the broad objectives of their weapons program; in
particular, we lack sufficient indication of their
intentions and capabilities to develop deliverable weapons
and to minimize weapons diameters.
- e.
-
Soviet and ChiCom Capabilities and Intentions With
Respect to Nuclear Weapons and Delivery Systems.
The present and future capabilities of the Soviets and
ChiCom to employ
nuclear weapons directly affect US war plans and tactics.
For example, we lack information on the Soviet intent and
capability to deploy a solid propellant ICBM, field a mobile ICBM, develop new strategic
aircraft, or employ ballistic missile submarines and on the
ChiCom intent and
capability to produce strategic delivery systems.
Insufficient knowledge forces planning to be based on
assumptions which, if incorrect, can invalidate plans,
affect national security, and waste resources.
- f.
-
Soviet Activities in Enhanced Nuclear
Weapons Effects (Specifically Hot X-Rays) (S–RD). Specific knowledge
of Soviet work in these areas is needed for US strategic
missile development and hardening antiballistic missile
planning and for establishing concepts of operation.
- g.
-
Soviet Capabilities and Intentions in
Space. There is a deficiency in our present ability
to detect launch, including zero orbit and the first orbit
of Soviet space vehicles and their potential military
application, and to provide early detection and subsequent
tracking of altered orbits of such vehicles. In addition,
the Soviet Union has conducted several sophisticated space
experiments about which the United States had no
foreknowledge and has not yet duplicated. Some knowledge of
the technological advances which made this possible would
assist our space program, particularly the manned orbiting
laboratory.
- h.
-
Surveillance of ChiCom Military Movements as an Indicator
of Intentions in Southeast Asia. The situation in
Southeast Asia could be [Page 391] altered rapidly by the introduction of
large numbers of Red Chinese into the North Vietnam area.
One of the first indications would be a buildup of ground
and air forces in Southern China and naval surface and
submarine forces in adjacent sea areas. We are not getting
intelligence coverage of these areas with the timeliness,
frequency, and quality required.
- i.
-
Soviet and ChiCom Capabilities in Support of
Protracted Operations. More knowledge is needed of
those aspects of force structure and logistics support
capabilities that determine the size of committed forces and
the duration for which they can be committed. In the case of
the Soviet Union, this consideration applies to both nuclear
and nonnuclear operations and will similarly apply to
Communist China when that country attains significant
nuclear capability.
- j.
-
Effectiveness of the Soviet’s Stored
Obsolescent Weapons. Information is lacking
regarding the total capability represented by obsolescent
Soviet weapons in storage and their ability to reactivate,
man, and support them. In particular, their ability to
obtain pilots for tactical aircraft is not known.
- k.
-
Communist General Purpose/Tactical
Military Capability. There is a persistent over-all
deficiency in intelligence available on communist general
purpose/tactical forces. Specific deficiencies include
current and future information on detailed order of battle,
combat and service support, mobilization capability,
electronic surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities,
tactical air support, tactical nuclear weapons and doctrine,
and tactical air defense capabilities and systems, ground
and air, low and high altitude (with special regard for
future air defense systems). This over-all deficiency
embraces considerations of timeliness, accuracy, and degree
of detail and particularly the posture and capabilities of
mobile weapons systems. It continues to inject significant
uncertainties into force-oriented and strategic planning and
into the establishment of readiness postures.
- l.
-
Soviet Antisubmarine Warfare (ASW). There is
insufficient information available on Soviet antisubmarine
warfare capabilities to enable an assessment of the threat
posed by this capability against nuclear powered ballistic
missile submarines.
- m.
-
Soviet and ChiCom Research and Development. The
principal gap in scientific and technical intelligence,
which has the most significant effect on our national
security, has been the inability to obtain definitive
information on applied development projects and programs in
the time period between the end of general research and the
appearance of development testing or deployment.
- n.
-
Soviet and ChiCom Capabilities and Intentions with
Respect to Biological and Chemical Warfare. Lack of
specific knowledge of biological [Page 392] and chemical warfare activities
prevents our effective defense planning for offensive and
defensive material and for establishing operational
posture.
- o.
-
Soviet and ChiCom Mapping, Charting, and Geophysical
Data. The principal intelligence gap and deficiency
for the DOD mapping,
charting, and geodetic community is the almost complete
inability to penetrate the rigidly controlled society of the
communist world for the procurement of communist-produced
topographic, charting, and geophysical materials. Both
countries have completed major programs of effort during the
last ten years covering the fields of topographic mapping,
aeronautical and nautical charting, and geophysical
activities such as geodesy, gravity, and geomagnetics. We
have obtained practically none of these data. These
deficiencies have a pronounced influence on the geodetic
positioning of targets and will directly bear on the success
or failure of military operations.
- p.
-
Counterinsurgency Intelligence. There
is a general deficiency in detailed basic and operational
intelligence on newly emerging countries, particularly in
Africa South of the Sahara, and in other areas such as Latin
America which are potentially vulnerable to insurgency.
Contingency operations must be planned which require
detailed data on external and internal subversive elements
and infrastructure; the degree of loyalty and capability of
indigenous defense forces; biographic data on potential
leaders, both loyal and subversive; and basic information on
accurate graphics, key communications, public utilities, and
other operational and supporting facilities.
- q.
-
Lack of Reliable Information on Plans,
Policies and Intentions of Communist Countries.
This deficiency continues to be one of the most difficult to
solve and, additionally, continues to pose a great
strategic, as well as political, uncertainty in military
planning and preparedness.
- r.
-
ChiCom Economic,
Industrial, and Technological Base. There is
inadequate information on the extent of development of the
ChiCom economic,
industrial, and technological base and its ability to
support political, military, and subversive activities in
Asia, Southeast Asia, and other areas. Additionally, much is
needed on the ChiCom role
relating to other communist countries, and the apparatus by
which it influences them, especially North Vietnam.
- 4.
- (U) In addition to the above, as you are well aware, we are beset
with many intelligence deficiencies and problems associated with the
conduct of military affairs in Southeast Asia. Although of immediate
importance, these have not been specifically delineated in the above
list since they have been, and are continuing to be, comprehensively
addressed in response to a White House memorandum signed by Mr.
McGeorge Bundy to the
Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, and [Page 393] the Director of Central Intelligence,
dated 4 January 1966, subject: “Review of the US Foreign
Intelligence and Related Activities in Selected Areas of Southeast
Asia and the Far East,” and which was based on the PFIAB report to the President, dated
9 December 1965, same subject.
- 5.
- (U) On behalf of the Department of Defense, may I assure you of
our continued and wholehearted cooperation.