Foreign Relations of the United States, 1961–1963, Volume XXV, Organization of Foreign Policy; Information Policy; United Nations; Scientific Matters

147. Memorandum From the Deputy Director of the U.S. Information Agency (Wilson) to the President’s Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Bundy)¹

Washington, March 7, 1963.

Here are some additional USIA surveys from Western Europe.

You have already received the surveys entitled “Some Current Public Trends in Western Europe” and “West European Opinion Trends on U.S. and Soviet Strength”. The ones enclosed differ in that the returns from Italy have been included.²

Donald M. Wilson

Attachment

CURRENT WEST EUROPEAN PUBLIC OPINION ON SOME DISARMAMENT ISSUES

Trend in Support For General and Complete Disarmament

Support for whatever is understood by “general and complete” disarmament has increased in Western Europe over the past year and a half, and now ranges from a majority level in Great Britain to the order of 86 percent in Italy.

Table 1. “What are your feelings in general about disarmament? Are you for general and complete disarmament throughout the world, for some partial limitation on arms, or for no limitation on arms?”

	Great Britain		West Germany		France		Italy
	Jun/Jul ’61	Feb ’63	Jun/Jul ’61	Feb. ’63	Jun/Jul ’61	Feb. ’63	Jun/Jul ’61	Feb. ’63
No. of cases	(633)	(400)	(572)	(600)	(659)	(633)	(600)	(400)
General and complete disarmament	43%	57%	70%	72%	73%	80%	73%	86%
Some partial limitation	35	31	18	15	15	13	7	10
No limitation	13	6	4	3	3	2	3	*
Qualified answer	2	1	2	*	3	1	1	*
No opinion	7	5	6	10	6	4	16	4
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

*Asterisks indicate less than half of one per cent.

Would General and Complete Disarmament Require an International Police Force?

The strongly predominant opinion among those in favor of general and complete disarmament is that such a state of affairs would require some sort of international organization with its own police force.

Table 2. “Do you think that general and complete disarmament would or would not require an international organization with its own policy force?”

Would require	45%	48%	52%	52%
Would not	6	9	12	14
No opinion	6	15	16	20
	57%	72%	80%	86%

Support For Nuclear Disarmament

On the more specific issue of nuclear disarmament support rises to overwhelming levels in the countries surveyed.

Table 3. “What about nuclear disarmament? Would you favor or not favor the abolition of nuclear weapons throughout the world?”

	Great Britain	West Germany	France	Italy
	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63
No. of cases	(400)	(600)	(633)	(400)
Favor	70%	87%	94%	96%
Not favor	11	2	2	1
No opinion	19	11	4	3
	100%	100%	100%	100%

That sentiment in favor of the abolition of nuclear weapons is rather intense is suggested by returns available from three countries on whether or not nuclear weapons should be banned, if thereby the Western military forces were left weaker than communist forces. In France a majority, or near majority, is for a nuclear ban even if the West is left weaker as a consequence. Another 23 per cent are undecided rather than opposed.

In Great Britain and in Italy there appears to be more opposition than support for a nuclear ban that would leave the West militarily weaker than communist forces. But only minorities are explicitly opposed, which means that the majority in these countries are either for a nuclear ban under such circumstances or are undecided.

Table 4. “Assuming that banning nuclear weapons would leave the Western military forces weaker than the Communist forces, would you be for such a ban or against it?”

For ban	25%	Not available	52%	33%
Against ban if West left weaker	39	Not available	25	38
No opinion	36	Not available	23	29
	100%	Not available	100%	100%

Is Nuclear Disarmament Possible?

The widespread sentiment in favor of nuclear disarmament is not accompanied by equally general feeling that such a course is possible. While optimism holds an edge it does not attain a majority level in any of the countries surveyed, and except in France, is almost matched by the extent of pessimistic views.

Table 5. “Do you think it will be possible or not possible to abolish nuclear weapons throughout the world?”

	Great Britain	West Germany	FranceItaly
	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63
No. of cases	(400)	(600)	(633)	(400)
Possible	48%	47%	47%	46%
Not possible	41	43	32	38
No opinion	11	10	21	16
	100%	100%	100%	100%

Any pessimism, however, on the possibility of attaining nuclear disarmament would appear to be tempered by a widespread feeling that the countries of the world will get together before any general nuclear war on some way to avoid such a happening.

Table 6. “All things considered, do you believe that a general nuclear war is inevitable some time in the future, or do you believe that the countries of the world will get together in time on some way to avoid such a happening?”

Nuclear war inevitable	9%	11%	5%	5%
Will be avoided	74	72	85	82
No opinion	17	17	10	13
	100%	100%	100%	100%

Support For Verification in a Nuclear Test Ban

Despite the widespread desire for nuclear disarmament, evident in the preceding indications, the prevailing opinion in all four countries surveyed is that the U.S. should continue to insist upon adequate inspection as a part of any agreement to ban nuclear tests. The trend indication, where the same question has been employed, is that support for inspection has increased somewhat since earlier measurements in mid 1962.

The table below is somewhat complicated by the fact that an updated question version was substituted during the course of the study in time for the entire sampling in West Germany and Italy and part of the sampling in France. Results on the revised question, it will be noted, parallel indications from the earlier wording in indicating predominant support for inspection.

Initial Version

Table 7. “A main reason why there has been as yet no U.S.-Soviet agreement to ban nuclear tests is that the U.S. wants checking by international inspectors on each other’s soil, and the Soviet Union opposes this because they say it will lead to spying.

“Should the U.S. enter an agreement with U.S.S.R. to stop testing without such inspection, or should the U.S. continue to insist upon such inspection as part of any agreement?”

	Great Britain		West Germany		France		Italy
	June ’62	Feb, ’63	June ’62	Feb, ’63	June ’62	Feb, ’63	June ’62	Feb, ’63
No. of cases	(647)	(400)	(620)	Not asked	(615)	(223)	(672)	Not asked
Should enter agreement	23%	20%	27%	Not asked	45%	12%	25%	Not asked
Should insist on inspection	54	67	51	Not asked	40	18	42	Not asked
No opinion	23	13	22	Not asked	15	5	33	Not asked
	100%	100%	100%	Not asked	100%	35%	100%	Not asked

Updated Version

“Now on this card we find two people expressing different views about banning nuclear tests. (CARD)

Mr. A. says: ‘The U.S. should enter into an immediate agreement with the Soviet Union to ban nuclear testing even if the Soviets will not permit as much checking in both countries as the U.S. requests in order to verify that the agreement is kept.’

Mr. B. says: ‘The U.S. should not enter into an agreement with the Soviet Union to ban nuclear tests unless the Soviets agree to as much checking in both countries as the U.S. feels necessary to verify that the agreement is kept.’

“Do you agree more with Mr. A or more with Mr. B?”

	Great Britain		West Germany		France		Italy
	June ’62	Feb. ’63	June ’62	Feb. ’63	June ’62	Feb. ’63	June ’62	Feb. ’63
No. of cases				(600)		(410)		(400)
Mr. A	Not asked	Not asked		30%	Not asked	16%	Not asked	26%
Mr. B	Not asked	Not asked		47	Not asked	38	Not asked	47
Qualified answer	Not asked	Not asked		1	Not asked	1	Not asked	2
No opinion	Not asked	Not asked		22	Not asked	10	Not asked25
				100%		65%		100%

How Hard Are the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. Working To Reach a Disarmament Agreement?

Currently the majority feeling, except in France, is that the U.S. is working at least fairly hard to try to obtain an agreement with the U.S.S.R. on some degree of disarmament. In France opinions divide on this score, with as many as feel otherwise holding that the U.S. is not working very hard or not at all.

In contrast, in all four countries the viewpoint prevails that the Soviet Union is not working as hard as it might to achieve a disarmament agreement.

Since almost all in each of the countries surveyed favor at least partial arms limitation, these figures can be taken as approximate indications of comparative satisfaction with current U.S. and Soviet disarmament efforts.

Table 8. “In your opinion, how hard is the U.S. working to obtain an agreement with the Soviet Union on some degree of disarmament? Very hard, fairly hard, not very hard, or not at all?”

	Great Britain	West Germany	France	Italy
Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63
No. of cases	(400)	(600)	(633)	(400)
Very hard	29%	29%	11%	33%
Fairly hard	34 63	33 62	28 39	34 67
Not very hard	22	20	27	11
Not at all	6 28	2 22	14 41	2 13
No opinion	9	16	20	20
	100%	100%	100%	100%
Not Favorable	35	40	-2	54

Table 9. “And how about the Soviet Union. In your opinion, how hard is the Soviet Union working to obtain an agreement with the U.S. on some degree of disarmament? Very hard, fairly hard, not very hard, or not at all?”

Very hard	8%	1%	6%	9%
Fairly hard	27 35	7 8	17 23	25 34
Not very hard	36	38	32	35
Not at all	14 50	36 74	24 56	9 44
No opinion	15	18	21	22
	100%	100%	100%	100%
Net favorable	-15	-66	-33	-10

Support For Some Degree of Disarmament in Europe

Specific inquiries about disarmament thinking were concluded in the present survey by a query designed to illuminate the extent of general receptivity to proposals for disarmament in Europe. The results indicate a majority disposition in all four countries surveyed to be favorable toward an agreement between the Western Powers and the Soviet bloc providing for some degree of disarmament in Europe. This state of opinion tends to suggest, of course, that proposals for a nuclear free zone in Europe fall on fertile soil in the Western countries principally concerned.

Table 10. “Would you approve or disapprove of an agreement between the Western Powers and the Soviet Union and its European allies providing for some degree of disarmament in Europe?”

	Great Britain	West Germany	France	Italy
	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63	Feb. ’63
No. of cases	(400)	(600)	(633)	(400)
Approve	64%	62%	72%	60%
Disapprove	9	18	7	14
No opinion	27	20	21	26
	100%	100%	100%	100%

1. Source: Kennedy Library, National Security Files, Departments and Agencies Series, USIA, Box 290. Confidential.
2. Attached are several surveys of public opinion in Western Europe prepared by the Survey Research Division, Research and Reference Service, USIA. Despite USIA’s avowed policy, many of the questions in the surveys continued to focus on “prestige” issues such as whether, in the respondent’s opinion, the United States or the Soviet Union was ahead economically or militarily. In addition to the one printed below, the other titles were: “West European Opinion Trends on U.S. and Soviet Strength” (February 1963), “The Sino-Soviet Conflict Through Western European Eyes” (March 1963), “West European Assessment of the Outcome of the Cuban Crisis” (March 1963), and “Current West European Public Opinion about NATO and Nuclear Issues” (March 1963).